Battle for Idlib: Has Syria's civil war finally reached its endgame?
Civilians are stuck between rebels and Syrian forces as well as Iranian-backed militia who want Idlib conquered and pacified.
Friday 10 May 2019 17:22, UK
With Russian and Iranian backing, the Syrian regime has routed rebel forces out of one pocket of resistance after another.
On most occasions, they have been offered safe passage to Idlib in the north west of the country. The province has become a dumping zone for rebel forces who regroup there to fight another day.
The fear is that Idlib will become more of a killing zone for those rebel fighters and the civilians they are living amongst.
A ceasefire negotiated between Russia and Turkey has kept the area relatively quiet since September but fighting is flaring again. Each side blames the other.
But what is undeniable is the bloodshed and disastrous impact on the people living there.
The UN is warning of an "unimaginable human rights and humanitarian catastrophe". As ever with Syria, the numbers are mind-boggling.
Some 150,000 people were forced to flee their homes in the last week. Scores were killed. A dozen medical facilities were hit - apparently deliberately - in airstrikes. This is the barbarity of the regime and its Russian and Iranian backers.
It takes some cynicism to target a hospital or a clinic. Russia's air force and its Syrian counterpart have done it repeatedly during this conflict. In Aleppo, the Russians even hit a UN aid convoy from the air.
It is a war crime but an effective one. Imagine your hospital being bombed by Russian warplanes. Like the people of Idlib, you would quickly conclude nowhere in your town is safe, pack your bags and flee, as tens of thousands of people have in the last week alone.
The UN says it is investigating shelling by al Qaeda-linked groups that may have resulted in scores of deaths and injuries. There are three million civilians in Idlib, increasingly at risk in the crossfire between desperate rebel fighters and the regime forces attacking them.
But is this the endgame in the devastating Syrian civil war that has claimed more than half a million lives since 2011?
Syrian president Bashar al Assad has declared his intention to reconquer the entire country. He can only do so with Russian and Iranian backing, without which he would most likely have been history some time ago.
There are between 70,000 and 90,000 rebel fighters in the difficult terrain around Idlib. Their backs are to the wall (or the border at least) and this time they have nowhere left to go, so they will be fighting to the bitter end.
But the Assad regime may have more tactical ambitions in mind. Damascus does not believe Turkey has done enough to honour its commitments as part of the ceasefire deal negotiated for Idlib last year, in particular with regards to al Qaeda-affiliated rebel fighters in areas under its influence.
It also wants highways controlled by rebels opened up.
This latest offensive may be more about putting pressure on Turkey to keep its side of the bargain, than pushing to retake the entire province.
Either way it is very bad news for civilians living in Idlib who now face being squeezed once again by fanatical rebel forces fighting to the death and Syrian, Russian and Iranian-backed militia who have no compunction about bombing hospitals and want Idlib conquered and pacified one way or another.