Bear hugs mask Brexit dinner that was 'not a night for breakthroughs'
Don't read too much into the positive statements and kisses at the PM's Brexit dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker, says Faisal Islam.
Tuesday 17 October 2017 10:46, UK
It took some long-lens paparazzi-style snapping to get even a sense of the body language around the PM's dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker.
Much of this dinner was designed to be private.
What the Sky News cameras picked out did seem good: a Gallic double kiss from Theresa May for the European Commission president - whom she once said would be the first to find out how "bloody difficult" she is - and .
The statement was reasonably positive, talking of a hoped-for acceleration of talks, and the constructive nature of the dinner.
A similar statement and the same body language was in evidence six months ago at the first of these fixtures in Downing Street.
And yet within days there were leaked reports in German newspapers with verbatim accounts of what was said, and then an extraordinary Downing Street statement claiming that Mr Juncker's team was trying to interfere with the results of the election.
So perhaps it is important not to read too much into all that.
Expectations have been set rather low. "This was not the evening for breakthroughs", says one person with knowledge of the meal.
The EU is aware of Mrs May's domestic need for her moves in Florence to be reciprocated.
The talk here is that the diplomatic ambition of the dinner was merely to firm up the Commission and stop the backsliding process in the EU Council conclusion drafting process.
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Paris and Berlin's representatives believe chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's push to expand his mandate to include immediate transition talks overstepped the mark.
There have been moves to water down communique wording that December would be the default point for "sufficient progress" and a move to trade talks to have been made.
Indeed, the summit language had hardened a bit.
In her calls with EU leaders, Mrs May has been advised not to push for immediate transition talks before leaving the EU summit on Friday - to let the EU27 agree a position.
The win they look set to offer the PM is that member states will discuss the shape of a transition deal in preparation for December.
The key question is this: is this sufficient domestic political cover for Mrs May to last two months of machinations in Cabinet, in her party, and in Parliament, against a backdrop of economic uncertainty?
One ex-diplomat suggested: "We could do without November."
There is some irony that Mr Juncker and Mr Barnier are now being more helpful than the EU27 and the Council.
Negotiations require momentum.
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But, as ever, it is important to step back from the short and medium-term. The big picture here is that we will not get trade talks in the Autumn, as had been expected in the Spring.
And the bigger picture is this: despite divisions, as one would expect amongst 27 separate EU nations, those 27 separate governments have been more united on the Article 50 process than 28 British Cabinet ministers.
If that continues, as it did so publicly ahead of the Florence speech and Tory conference, then lingering doubts about the deliverability of any UK offer invites foot-dragging on the other side of the table.