COVID-19: Has third coronavirus wave in UK already peaked or not?
If you look at the official stats on the government dashboard, daily COVID cases have tumbled well below their peak of mid-July. But new figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest infections are, in fact, still rising.
Friday 30 July 2021 23:31, UK
So has the third coronavirus wave begun to peter out or not?
If you look at the official stats on the government dashboard, daily COVID cases have tumbled well below their peak of mid-July.
There was a consistent downward trend for more than a week. But it left scientists puzzled because there was no clear reason for such an abrupt turnaround.
There was no gentle bend to the curve; cases suddenly declined as fast as they had been rising.
Could good weather, the end of the football and the start of the summer holidays really have a more dramatic impact than the total lockdown of previous waves?
add to the mystery.
They suggest cases are, in fact, still rising, up another 14% from last week.
The trends are heading in opposite directions.
How can it be?
It's possible that there is a lag in the ONS data.
People who tested positive may have been infected several days earlier, whereas the government's daily stats just count new infections.
On the other hand, the ONS Infection Survey is seen as the most comprehensive of all snapshots of the epidemic.
It tests people randomly, whether or not they have symptoms, so it picks up asymptomatic cases that may be missing from the official stats.
Right now there may be another really important group missing from the official stats.
Schools have broken up for summer and children are no longer doing twice-weekly lateral flows.
That's could partly explain why the number of tests being done at the moment has fallen by 14%.
But more than 3% of secondary school age children are infected.
If they aren't coming forward because their symptoms are so mild or even absent, then part of the epidemic may be slipping below the radar.
Another week of data should clear up the confusion. If the ONS numbers are just trailing behind, they should start to dip.
But if the ONS is picking up missing cases then it shows the third wave is far from over.