COVID-19: With limited data, politicians are flying blind when it comes to Omicron
Countries have introduced new restrictions, but there is an absence of unequivocal data and lab findings, writes Sky's Paul Kelso.
Saturday 4 December 2021 22:33, UK
Governments around the world are worried about the Omicron variant of coronavirus, and many have restricted travel from southern Africa in response.
In the absence of unequivocal data and laboratory findings, a harder question is what they should do about it at home?
With no definitive judgment of the new variant's severity or rate of transmission in vaccinated populations, politicians are flying blind.
When it comes to the existing dominant variant, however, there is less mystery.
Many European nations are confronting a fresh wave of Delta, which helps explain why across the continent, nations are taking different approaches to the second winter.
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In Ireland, the UK's closest neighbour, Taoiseach Micheal Martin has announced a return to tight social restrictions after what he called a "very stark" warning from public health officials.
From Tuesday, nightclubs will close for a month having only been open for a matter of weeks, sports events and theatres will be restricted to 50% capacity, a rule of six will be introduced in restaurants, and no more than four households may mix in private homes.
There was just a single confirmed case of Omicron in Ireland when these restrictions were announced, but Delta cases have increased, the seven-day rolling average up 58% in the last 30 days.
Even with 75% of the population double-vaccinated and hospitalisations falling, that steep climb at the start of the Christmas party season has sent a tremor through the Dublin administration.
The Delta wave also helps explain Germany's imposition of new rules that explicitly limit the freedom of the unvaccinated.
Cases have more than doubled in the last 30 days, up 136% from 24,000 to 57,000 a day, and crucially the pressure is being felt in hospitals. Deaths are also sharply rising, averaging more than 300 a day.
In response, the unvaccinated, or those who have not recently recovered from the virus, will be banned from shops, bars and restaurants, and will be limited to socialising with just two other people beyond their own families.
Sports and concert crowds will have a 50% capacity limit with a cap of 15,000 people and, tellingly, a drive to deliver 30 million vaccinations by the end of the year is under way.
Fewer than 70% of adults are fully vaccinated in Germany, a point of weakness in the one proven defence against Delta.
All of this is in addition to the existing mask mandate in public places and consumer spaces.
France had much lower absolute numbers of Delta than Germany or the UK, just 6,000 a day in November, but that figure has soared more than five-fold in the last month to almost 40,000.
Hospitalisation and deaths remain steady and manageable, so while travel restrictions have been tightened, including for UK visitors who now require a negative test, domestic rules remain unchanged.
Health passports - proof of double vaccination or a negative test - are required for most consumer and public spaces, alongside a mask mandate.
The UK by contrast operates perhaps the most liberal COVID regime in western Europe, and restrictions have only marginally tightened since Omicron caught the world's attention 10 days ago.
With Delta cases rising only 14% in a month, and deaths falling following the October dip in cases, social contact remains almost unrestricted. Masks are now required in shops and on public transport in England, a mandate that was already in place in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The government's central strategy has been to once more trust the vaccines, accelerating the booster program in the hope that it will offer protection against Omicron, and the certainty that it will deter Delta.
It is a sound defence against what we know of COVID but does not come without public health risk. With more than 18m people already boosted, including the majority of the most vulnerable and the over-50s, the focus is now those at less risk of severe illness and death.
If GPs are to assist, however, they have been told they can reduce routine health checks on the over-75s. Many will continue to do both, but deciding which is the priority for patient health is a fine judgment.
Many public health officials would like to see more restrictions on social contact, and therefore transmission, but acknowledge the challenge of finding the right balance.
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Linda Bould, chair of public health in The Usher Institute at the University of Edinburgh and chief social policy advisor to the Scottish government, told Sky News: "What governments are trying to do is balance the four harms; harm from the virus, harm to the NHS, social and education harms, and harm to the economy, and they have to make that balance, with a desire not to shut down unnecessarily.
"I am genuinely, genuinely worried [about omicron]. But, we're two years into this pandemic, these variants continue to pop up, we need to find sustainable solutions, and I think lockdowns just cause so much damage and absolutely need to be a last resort."
While Europe is facing a winter wave of Delta, only a few hundred cases of Omicron have been detected. Until its severity and rate of transmission are clearer, government cannot know if the steps taken today will be sufficient.