Donald Trump 'losing leverage' in Syria after diplomatic U-turn
The fallout from the president's actions could also end up leaving Western allies marginalised, undermined and weaker.
Wednesday 16 October 2019 08:02, UK
President Trump's goal to end "endless wars" and bring his troops home is laudable - who doesn't want world peace?
But the confused way he's attempted to achieve this in Syria could fundamentally reshape global alliances, while simultaneously breathing life into Islamic State.
Barely a week since Donald Trump flipped US foreign policy on its head:
- Kurdish forces, a key counter-terrorism ally, have sided with arch foe President Assad and Russia
- Iranian and Russian-backed Syrian regime forces are gaining ground in Syria as US and British special forces prepare to withdraw
- A Turkish cross-border offensive against the Kurds has killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands
- Several Islamic State fighters and hundreds of IS supporters have escaped Kurdish-run detention camps
- The US has imposed sanctions on NATO ally Turkey
When it came, the handbrake U-turn in American strategy on the Middle East was a two-paragraph statement released by the White House on 6 October.
"Today, President Donald J Trump spoke with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey by telephone," it read.
"Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into northern Syria.
"The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial 'Caliphate,' will no longer be in the immediate area."
It is no secret that Mr Trump wanted to pull troops out of Syria - he had already tried and failed to do so last December, losing his highly-regarded defence secretary in the process.
That meant at least the shock of the announcement when it came a second time around had already been factored in and the ramifications gamed out by his military and security chiefs, as well as close allies such as Britain.
What left officials bemused was the curious way the decision emerged, following a telephone call seemingly initiated by the Turkish rather than the US side.
The president used a series of tweets to back up his move, saying it was time to pull US troops out of Syria because Islamic State's so-called caliphate had been defeated.
He justifiably vented anger at the dereliction of duty by European countries - including Britain - to take charge of captured IS suspects who came from their respective states, instead letting them languish in a string of detention camps in northern Syria.
"It is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home," Mr Trump wrote.
"WE WILL FIGHT WHEN IT IS IN OUR BENEFIT, AND FIGHT ONLY TO WIN. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out… We are 7,000 miles away and will crush ISIS again if they come anywhere near us!"
Then came a diplomatic wobble.
Hours after taking his dramatic decision on Syria, the president blinked.
An outburst of horror and anger from Republicans and Democrats alike appeared to prompt him to dilute his plan - evidence perhaps of an absence of understanding of the consequences of what he had by then already unleashed.
"If Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the economy of Turkey," President Trump wrote on Twitter.
But he did not specify what off-limits meant.
I asked the Turkish ambassador to London whether he knew - he didn't. Either way, the threat had no impact on Turkey.
Within 48 hours President Erdogan had begun his long-planned ground and air offensive across the border into northeastern Syria against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces - a pivotal ally of the US, Britain and others in the years long fight against Islamic State.
A top Kurdish general warned the United States to halt the Turkish assault or else he would have no choice but to strike a deal, brokered by Russia, with the Assad regime to fend off Turkey.
On Sunday, with no US support forthcoming, the Kurds made good on their threat - a devastating move for all those who had fought the Syrian government since 2011.
Within hours, regime forces were moving back into parts of the north that had been off limits, in support of Kurdish fighters facing off against Turkey and its proxies.
A week after effectively making way for Turkey's military action, the United States then imposed sanctions on Ankara.
France, Germany and other NATO members halted arms sales, while Britain too followed suit in a slightly more limited way.
These are significant steps to take against a NATO ally and could test the durability of an alliance that has been the cornerstone for European and US defence for 70 years.
What happens next in Syria is unclear.
President Erdogan's gamble to continue his cross-border attack, despite world leaders urging him to stop, could spectacularly backfire if his forces end up clashing with the Russian military, also active on the ground and in the air in support of President Assad.
Russia and Turkey are supposed to be close allies.
The Turkish leader will doubtless be hoping some kind of deal can be struck between Ankara, Damascus, Moscow and Tehran that satisfies his demands for a secure border and perhaps unites the whole of Syria back under the regime.
The only certainty as things stand is that the United States is losing its leverage, losing its Kurdish allies and losing its ability to secure dozens of the most dangerous Islamic State fighters who are still being held by the Kurds.
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Mr Trump had claimed that the US took charge of the worst of the militants, but as of Monday they had only actually transferred two British members of the IS "Beatles" - accused of killing Western hostages - to a secure facility in Iraq.
The long-term, wider, international implications of this past week are impossible to predict.
But if it signals the moment Turkey breaks with Europe and the United States to turn fully towards Russia, while President Assad regains control of his whole country, supported by Iran, then Western allies will be left marginalised, undermined and weaker.
They may also have to confront a newly revived terrorist threat if Islamic State is able to exploit the confusion to its advantage.