Ferguson returns to the UK after Swiss tax changes
The US-focused plumbing and heating group is returning its headquarters to London but questions remain over its future in Britain.
Wednesday 27 March 2019 18:50, UK
Think back to a decade ago and, apart from the inferno that was the financial crisis, a debate was also raging about the competitiveness of the UK economy.
In the name of tackling tax avoidance, the then Labour government had changed the rules on how profits earned in low-tax countries elsewhere were taxed in the UK, sparking a rush among companies with comparatively few earnings derived in Britain to move their domiciles elsewhere.
A clutch of big-name companies, including Informa, WPP, Henderson, United Business Media, Charter, Beazley and Shire Pharmaceuticals, all announced they were switching domicile to other jurisdictions, including Ireland, Luxembourg and Switzerland.
When the coalition government was elected, in 2010, it set about attracting some of these companies back and, over time, most of them redomiciled back to the UK.
One which did not was Wolseley, the plumbing and heating products distributor, which had moved to Switzerland.
Today, though, the company - which changed its name to Ferguson just under two years ago - announced it was returning to the UK.
The decision follows changes in Swiss tax rules.
Mike Powell, the chief financial officer, explained: "Since we moved there, the benefits of the Swiss tax domicile have reduced over time - it remains less competitive for us to remain there going forward."
The move will not, however, dampen speculation that Ferguson may, over time, move its main listing from the London Stock Exchange to the New York Stock Exchange.
This is, after all, a company that makes more than four-fifths of its sales in the United States.
The UK, where it traded under the Plumb Center and Builder Center names until they were recently rebranded to Wolseley, accounts for barely 11% of revenues.
But John Martin, the chief executive, insisted today no such move was imminent.
He explained: "This is not something which is in the gift of the company.
"Our shareholders would have to approve a delisting and relisting with a 75% majority.
"Most people who hold our shares have a mandate - an agreement with the people who own them.
"Some UK investors have a mandate to invest only in UK funds.
"It's really every individual.
"Each shareholder would have to decide if they were able to own the shares [in the event of a relisting in the US] and that is not as straightforward as it would seem on paper."
Those shareholders might be forgiven for feeling a little uncomfortable following the latest results update.
Trading profit, Ferguson's preferred measure, rose by 7.7% during the six months to the end of January as sales rose by 8.2% to $10.85bn.
But the shares were down by more than 10% at one point after the company warned that trading profit for the full year would be "towards the lower end of expectations".
They have now fallen by nearly a third since hitting an all-time high of £66.01 on 1 October last year.
Mr Martin said this was because the rate at which sales have been growing was expected to slow: "If you took our [sales] growth rate, in the first half, it was 6.5% and in the second half [we are saying we expect it to be] 3-5%."
He said several factors were behind this, including less inflation in the price of goods and a slowdown in Canada, where the group is exposed to a weakening in house prices after many years of growth.
In Britain, which contributed just $30m worth of trading profits and where the company recently sold its online business Soak.com, the market is expected to remain weak.
He went on: "We track data points from numerous economic research and industry sources. It's fair to say, over recent months, that some indicators have softened."
Speculation over whether Ferguson will remain in the UK is also likely to grow given the country's relative lack of importance to the company.
Mr Martin was at pains to play this down today, admitting that while the UK business was making relatively low returns compared with the US, he was confident that it was capable of doing better following a recent management shake-up.
He added: "We need to get back to taking market share and doing it profitably.
"I wouldn't say anything today other than that I am optimistic the current team is making good progress and gaining momentum in the market."
Longer term, Mr Martin insisted Ferguson still has decent growth prospects, not least with the rising population in the countries in which it operates.
Pointing out that the US population was set to grow by 6% during the next decade, he said: "Population growth and other social factors support home formation and consumers expect more comfortable homes and better-appointed buildings over time.
"In most of our markets, the market structure is very attractive, there is a real need for our services.
"We offer high value-added services to our customers. Opportunities for growth in our markets are fantastic."
Unfortunately for Mr Martin, the market is not looking that far into the future, as some of the analysts covering the stock noted today.
Emily Biddulph, the European construction, building materials and infrastructure analyst at JP Morgan, told clients: "We view the stock as fundamentally undervalued, particularly in light of its balance sheet strength and scope for capital reserves.
"However, we struggle to see the stock re-rating in the new term, unless views on the US cycle [become] more optimistic."