WAR HAS CHANGED EUROPE
It鈥檚 the type of conflict not seen for decades on the continent, with tanks and troops invading a sovereign nation.
It has not gone as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin would have hoped. More than 18 months later and fighting is still raging, with a Russian victory far from guaranteed.
But the invasion has led to some people asking which country Russia could look to next. And for many, the answer is Moldova.
Like Ukraine before it was invaded in February 2022, Moldova is a former Soviet country leaning towards the West. It has a Russian satellite state containing troops on its border. And much like in Ukraine, Russia is already undermining the government, spreading disinformation, and causing uncertainty.
So, Moldova seems like a prime target for Putin鈥檚 next move. But, could there actually be a war there?
After the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, Moldova gained independence. It became a republic in late 1991, a self-governing independent country. But it wasn鈥檛 a totally smooth transition.
A COMPLICATED HISTORY
The region of Transnistria is a long-contested slither of land on the east of Moldova, right on the border with Ukraine. It has a long, complicated history, with ties to Russia and the Soviet Union. For decades Moscow stationed its 14th army there.
Before Moldova became independent of the USSR, pro-Russian separatists declared it a breakaway state. This was disputed by Moldova, and as tensions rose fighting broke out.
The worst of the violence happened in 1992, with Moldovan troops fighting the pro-Transnistria forces, heavily backed by Russia. This was no small conflict either - hundreds of people died.
It ended with a ceasefire in the summer of 1992, but the issue of Transnistria鈥檚 autonomy was never really solved and it has since existed in a kind of limbo. It is essentially a Russian satellite state, unconnected to the mainland. Its status is not recognised by any country, not even Russia officially, but the Moldovan government has no real control there either.
But Russia does have strong political, cultural and military ties to Transnistria. Russian flags fly in the streets, and public opinion massively favours Moscow. There are 1,500 Russian peacekeeping troops in Transnistria, stationed there to maintain the ceasefire, and to guard the huge Cobasna ammunition depot, the biggest of its kind in eastern Europe.
The invasion of Ukraine has thrown Russia鈥檚 military presence in Transnistria into a new light. Could those troops move over the border into Ukraine? Or could they support Transnistria in a new war with Moldova?
Both situations are unlikely, especially given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. But Russia鈥檚 presence creates that uncertainty, something the Kremlin clearly wants to do in the region.
"Having a base for its troops in Moldova has always given Russia an opportunity to exercise some pressure on Moldova,鈥� said Professor Stefan Wolff, an international security expert at the University of Birmingham.
鈥淩ussia has always been keen to try and prevent the successor states of the Soviet Union from drawing too closely to the West."
This is not a unique situation. Russia has also occupied lands in other former Soviet states. It invaded parts of Georgia in 2008. And in 2014, Putin took advantage of street protests and disorder to orchestrate the biggest European land grab since the Second World War when he annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
In the years that followed, Russian-backed separatists began claiming more and more land in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. And then in February 2022, Putin used those inroads into Ukraine to help launch the full scale invasion.
Moldova is not the same as Ukraine. Russia and Moldova do not even share a land border, and there is no recent history of direct conflict between the nations.
But there are significant similarities in Russia鈥檚 actions in both countries.
ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS
In recent times, anti-government protests have become a common sight in the capital Chisinau. Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, and the war in Ukraine has made things even tougher.
Russia is a major supplier of the country's gas, but in the last year has slashed deliveries - pushing up prices. This has caused power cuts, blackouts, and a major rise in the cost of living.
Many people are unhappy with the government as a result, and believe President Maia Sandu could be doing more to help. This dissatisfaction is real, and is felt by people across the country.
But Russia is also seemingly taking advantage of this to spread further discord.
'THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE'
The Shor Party has been a major voice in these protests. The Moldovan political party has links with Russia, and is backed by the exiled oligarch Ilan Shor.
鈥淲e are supporting the protests because life in our country became too difficult.," Marina Tauber, the deputy leader of the Shor Party and a Moldovan MP told Sky News.
鈥淣o one country is supporting those protests. Those protests are supported by the will of the people to change something in their lives and in the life of our country.鈥�
In June 2023, the Moldovan Constitutional Court banned the Shor Party, saying it was 'unconstitutional'. The party's politicians have kept their seats as independents but will not be able to join other factions.
This move was welcomed by President Sandu, who called the party a "threat to the constitutional order and security of the state."
The Moldovan government claimed to have uncovered a Russian back plot to overthrow it in February 2023. And at a protest one month later, Moldovan authorities arrested seven men with Russian ties.
It is alleged they were paid by Moscow to stir up unrest, something the Kremlin has rejected.
Then, in July 2023, Moldova slashed the number of Russian diplomats in the country. Moldovan's Foreign Ministry said this was in response to "numerous unfriendly actions".
President Sandu wants Moldova to join the EU. And since the war in Ukraine, the traditionally neutral country has been getting closer to NATO.
This is the kind of thing that makes Putin nervous, and could be the reason Russia is seemingly upping its actions in Moldova.
DISINFORMATION
A different kind of war is already happening in Moldova, one involving social media and disinformation.
Analysts at Watchdog MD, a Moldovan think-tank, monitor how much Russian interference and disinformation is being spread online. They say it has increased tenfold in the last year.
Doina Dragomir, from the think-tank, told Sky News it is a "worrying" trend.
鈥淲e see that a lot of messages on Telegram and on websites, saying Moldova is run by Nazi politicians, or that this government has installed a dictatorship, that we are going farther from our 鈥榯raditional values鈥�,鈥� she said.
鈥淭hese messages are very similar to what we saw, and we are seeing in Ukraine鈥�
Fellow analyst Andrei Curararu agreed.
鈥淲e are not under siege like the Ukrainians are, but we are feeling the pressure even from here, from Chisinau.
鈥淭he future of the country鈥� lies at stake and the development of the country as a part of the European family itself.
鈥淓ven in February last year, nobody was feeling that the reports on Russia attacking Ukraine were real, and they turned out to be very accurate,鈥� he added.
鈥淲hat we are seeing is a situation that is still manageable but can go either way.鈥�
Undermining the government, spreading disinformation and causing uncertainty - these are all part of Mr Putin鈥檚 playbook. But why would Moscow allegedly do this in Moldova?
鈥淭he majority of Moldovans want to move closer to Europe, and that's obviously something that Russia is trying to prevent, and it's using these hybrid warfare means to accomplish that鈥�, said Professor Wolff.
鈥淢oscow can then say, well, look, it's a pro-European government and see how that government has run the country into the ground.鈥�
Moldova is a complex country, both leaning towards Europe, but retaining close ties with Russia.
Russian is the second-most spoken language in Moldova, and before the war the country regularly showed Russian TV channels.
People seem to lean towards Russia more than the US.
Many also place blame for the energy crisis with President Sandu, rather than Putin himself.
Russia is infiltrating Moldova culturally, spreading disinformation and it has a large military presence nearby.
These factors mean an invasion could very much be possible, but how likely is it really to happen?
"Russia does not have a common land border with this region of Moldova," said Professor Wolff.
"So it would be difficult for Russia to sustain any connection there permanently, not least because it would have to cross Ukraine, which obviously is not really feasible at the moment. And on the other side Moldova is completely surrounded by Romania.
鈥淚t's a very much landlocked country and landlocked between two countries that are all obviously very hostile to Russia at the moment.鈥�
Professor Stefan Wolff
Professor Stefan Wolff
Moldova鈥檚 leaders are not expecting a direct military invasion any time soon.
Minister of foreign affairs Nicu Popescu said: 鈥淭oday, Moldova is facing hybrid threats.
鈥淏ut we have proved, and our institutions have proved, and our government has proved, that in the last year we can keep the stability in this country, the calm in this country, and the peace in this country.鈥�
The wider European community, however, is taking these hybrid threats very seriously. In early June 2023, Moldova hosted the European Political Community summit, which was attended by leaders from Europe鈥檚 largest countries.
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On the eve of the summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged to provide additional economic support to Moldova.
"My message to the people of Moldova is that we stand by you," she said. "We support you every step of the way on your path to the European Union."
It has become clear that the war in Ukraine is something of an outlier. It is, in many ways, a more traditional type of war.
In Moldova, it is a different kind of conflict. Russia is not lining up tanks and troops on the border, but instead has made moves to destabilise the pro-Western government to strengthen its influence.
PUTIN'S NEXT MOVE?
It is always difficult to predict what the Kremlin will do next, but with the state of the war in Ukraine it seems like they will have to settle for this hybrid war in Moldova.
"An acceptable outcome from Moscow's perspective would probably be that Moldova remains in this in-between status.
"So, that it doesn't join the EU, that it doesn't join NATO any time soon鈥�, said Professor Wolff.
鈥淭he best case scenario for Russia would be, either through nefarious means or through closer relationships with a future Moldovan government, to be able to keep on controlling what is going on in Moldova.
鈥淸They could] use this leverage to just keep everybody else guessing. Keep Ukraine guessing whether there will be an invasion from Moldovan territory, keep the European Union, keep NATO guessing in terms of how close Moldova will draw to Moscow in the future.鈥�
Much like in Crimea and Ukraine before, there is no doubt Russia has started to ramp up its actions in Moldova. Escalation into full-scale conflict looks unlikely - but the Ukraine war has heralded a new, uncertain time in Europe.
CREDITS
Writing and production: James Lillywhite
Reporting: Siobhan Robbins
Editor: Serena KutchinAG百家乐在线官网
Design: Bria Anderson, Sabina Begum Ullah and Pippa Oakley
Picture credits: AP