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How a no-deal vote could stop Brexit and make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister

Even some Remain Tory MPs might think a Labour government would be worth it for a shot at keeping the UK in the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn
Image: Could a no deal with the EU put this man into Number 10?
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This was the week Westminster grappled with the prospect that Britain might walk away from those endless nights in airless Brussels meeting rooms empty handed; that the UK gets no deal.

And more strikingly still to some Leave MPs, the most bellicose Brexiteers actively want that.

Gone are the breezy confident assertions that Europe would be crying out for a deal if Britain left the EU.

During the referendum and its wake you could barely switch on a radio or television without hearing a Leave campaigner telling the nation that - as a result of "them selling to us more than we sell to them" or the fact that the German car manufacturers wouldn't stand for it - voters could back Leave confident that much of our trading relationship with Europe would remain the same.

So assured that Liam Fox, now the International Trade Secretary, said it would be "the easiest deal in human history".

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Abandoning Brexit would be 'best deal' for UK

Well, many of those same people have had a change of heart. They now say that the EU is being unexpectedly intransigent and that Britain should act accordingly. We should not only be willing to walk away from the negotiations but actively preparing for their collapse.

Putting aside the fact that many Remainers and impartial observers did predict this and people might have viewed the situation differently had they known no deal was a strong possibility, the long shadow of no deal will change the calculus of Brexit politics.

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The reason some hardline Leave MPs don't want a deal is because they think that no deal best guarantees the sort of Brexit they want, one with the most distant links to the EU.

A deal, they fear, is increasingly being used by the Prime Minister and Chancellor as a means of keeping elements of EU membership.

But they should be careful what they wish for.

John McDonnell, Labour's shadow chancellor, said on Sunday that Labour would support plans being drawn up by former chancellor Ken Clarke to give Parliament a vote on a no deal outcome.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell addresses supporters during a Labour Party rally in Park Hill park on June 6, 2017 in Croydon, England
Image: John McDonnell said Labour would back a no deal veto

He's indicated Labour would vote against no deal if it were put before Parliament in all circumstances.

This makes Remainers salivate. Because if the talks did break down and Parliament did get a vote on no deal it is clear what that vote would become.

It would be tantamount to a vote on staying in the EU - at least for a while. If Parliament rejected no deal but no other offer was on the table it would presumably be MPs' wish that we stayed in.

David Davis and Michel Barnier
Image: Brexit negotiations are overshadowed by the no deal threat

If I were a Leaver MP, I'd be worried about that. Because never forget there is a Remain majority in the Commons.

Yes, they've voted to trigger Article 50, but the prospect of no deal - and the damaging consequences it would reap - would be sufficient armour to protect MPs to vote with their hearts.

In that circumstance, the Government would probably fall, the Prime Minister might have to resign and we would almost certainly have to have an election.

That in itself would make Labour MPs vote for it. But even some Remainer Tory MPs might think that a period of Jeremy Corbyn in government might be worth it to give the UK a chance of staying in the EU.

These are big, big ifs.

An election might produce a thumping Conservative majority in favour of no-deal. There might be enough Labour rebels to make the vote tighter than we think. Tory MPs might choose to stick with the party line. The EU might refuse to lengthen the Article 50 countdown.

But almost whichever way you slice it, giving Parliament a veto over no deal does create a path, however rocky, for Britain to stay in the EU.

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Tories 'making a shocking mess' of Brexit

In summary, like everything about Brexit, the political situation became even more counter-intuitive, if not perverse, this week.

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We still have a Conservative Prime Minister who wants to remain, trying to secure a deal to leave, whilst we have a leader of the Opposition who in his heart probably wants to leave, leading a Labour party who wants to stay.

And perhaps the best prospect for Leavers would be to end up with the Government negotiating a deal keeping some elements of our membership but ditching others just so there's no vote on a no deal in Parliament.

And the best prospect for Remainers is no deal so they can vote against it, which might create a way for us to remain.

All clear? Good.