How can Theresa May finally get her Brexit deal approved by MPs?
In order to finally get her Brexit plan accepted by the House of Commons, the PM needs 75 MPs to drop their opposition.
Tuesday 26 March 2019 08:12, UK
Theresa May is scoping out bringing her Brexit deal back to the House of Commons - and will be hoping it is third time lucky when she seeks MPs' approval.
Last week, the prime minister saw her withdrawal agreement overwhelmingly defeated again, with her deal rejected by a 149-vote majority in the Commons.
That means, in order to finally get her Brexit plan accepted, she needs 75 MPs to drop their opposition to the agreement.
However, that could prove more difficult after a ruling by Speaker John Bercow on Monday in which he warned the PM she cannot hold another vote unless the deal is significantly changed.
Assuming significant alterations are made, how can Mrs May go about persuading wavering MPs to back her proposal?
:: Convince the DUP - 10 votes
The government is engaged in ongoing discussions with the DUP, who have 10 MPs, over the Irish border backstop arrangement.
This is an insurance policy to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland if talks on a future EU-UK trade relationship break down.
But the DUP fear the backstop could leave Northern Ireland split from the rest of the UK after Brexit.
The party's talks with the government are reportedly focused on a plan to guarantee any EU rules applied to Northern Ireland would also be adopted by the rest of the UK.
Chancellor Philip Hammond has also not ruled out extra cash heading to Northern Ireland if the DUP, which props up Mrs May's government at Westminster, back the Brexit deal.
If ministers do enough to convince the DUP to reverse their opposition to the withdrawal agreement, it could also open the door to some Tory Brexiteers dropping their objections.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the European Research Group (ERG) of around 80 Conservative eurosceptics, has said he won't support the Brexit deal as long as the DUP is opposed.
But, he has signalled he could back the withdrawal agreement, should the DUP do so, due to a growing fear of Brexit not going ahead.
:: Win over even more Tory Brexiteers - three votes, so far
The first time the prime minister put her Brexit deal to a vote in the Commons in January, it was opposed by a 230-vote majority.
This included 118 Conservative MPs.
At the second "meaningful" vote on her withdrawal agreement, the opposition to Mrs May's deal on Tory benches had lessened, with 75 of her MPs voting against it.
Many who changed their minds highlighted growing fears that Brexit could be subject to a long delay - or, perhaps, not taking place at all - if they continued to oppose a withdrawal deal.
Mrs May will hope, ahead of a third Commons vote, even more Tory MPs will be convinced of a need to ultimately back a deal to save Brexit.
Alongside Mr Rees-Mogg, other Conservative backbenchers have suggested they could be on the verge of switching votes to support the prime minister's agreement.
However, so far, only three more Conservative MPs - including former cabinet minister Esther McVey - have actually confirmed they will reverse their opposition to the Brexit deal at a third vote.
:: Secure the support of Brexit-friendly Labour MPs - 15 more votes
Only three Labour MPs voted for Mrs May's deal last week, despite the government's efforts to win over Brexit-friendly members of the opposition - which included more cash for deprived areas and guarantees on post-Brexit workers' rights.
However, in another Brexit vote last week, 18 Labour MPs (including the three who backed the prime minister's deal) opposed a second EU referendum, which would suggest they are not willing to see the UK's departure from the EU cancelled.
Downing Street will no doubt hope this number could yet be convinced to back a Brexit deal.
:: But, some Conservative eurosceptics won't budge - at least 13 votes
At least 13 Tory MPs have already said they still won't support the prime minister's Brexit deal, ahead of a third Commons vote.
Some are continuing to demand changes to the backstop, while others have highlighted other problems with the withdrawal agreement.
:: And neither will Tory Remainers - six votes
Those Conservative MPs who want a second EU referendum are also likely to keep up their opposition to the prime minister's withdrawal agreement.
:: And, some who have already switched could change their minds again - one possible vote, so far
Former Brexit secretary David Davis, who resigned from government in protest against the deal but then voted for it last week, has since said he could change his mind again.
He told The Times: "If they have not answered the Northern Ireland question properly I might not vote for it this time.
"I took them on trust last week. But now they have to solve that problem."