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Analysis

How EU shake-up will work - and why it matters for Brexit

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker will be replaced as new MEPs take their seats in Brussels.

Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk step down this summer
Image: Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk step down this summer
Why you can trust Sky News

Naturally the UK, or Westminster at least, is wrapped up in the race for who will become the next prime minister.

And, naturally, EU leaders are looking on with trepidation at who might succeed Mrs May.

But there's another leadership race they are much more focused on. Several in fact.

At the end of October, Jean-Claude Juncker's term as President of the European Commission will come to an end.

His 28 commissioners will retire from their posts and probably head back to where they all came from - national politics or diplomacy.

Brexit Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier talks to the press as he arrives at the EU summit meeting, Wednesday 10 April 2019, at the European Union headquarters in Brussels. BELGA PHOTO THIERRY ROGE        (Photo credit should read THIERRY ROGE/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: Michel Barnier could become Commission president

The European Central Bank (ECB) will get a new chief, as will the European External Action Service (EEAS - the EU's Foreign Office) as Mario Draghi and Federica Mogherini's terms both come to an end.

Donald Tusk will relinquish the post of European Council President and the Parliament too will replace President Antonio Tajani.

More on European Union

It is all change in the European Union machine and the mechanics is complicated.

It involves a good dose of horse trading, a democratic legitimacy that some will inevitably question and a few artful manoeuvres. And it all begins in earnest at tonight's European Council summit.

Danish candidate for the European Commission Presidency Margrethe Vestager of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) gives a speech during a EPP election-night event for European parliamentary elections in Brussels on May 26, 2019. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP)        (Photo credit should read JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: Danish candidate for the European Commission presidency, Margrethe Vestager

The key word is spitzenkandidat - the name for a system introduced in 2014 in an attempt to make the EU more democratic and accountable.

Prior to that, the president of the EU Commission (which proposes EU legislation) was nominated by European Council (made up of the elected leaders of the EU member countries). Under the spitzenkandidat system, the political groups of the European Parliament put forward candidates and the lead candidate (spitzenkandidat) gets the job.

NEUSTADT AN DER DONAU, GERMANY - MAY 26: Manfred Weber, lead candidate of the German and Bavarian Christin Democrats (CDU/CSU) in European Union parliamentary elections, and his wife Andrea Weber arrive for church before casting their votes on May 26, 2019 in Wildenberg, Germany. Weber is also the lead candidate for the European People's Party faction and is seeking to succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission. (Photo by Lennart Preiss/Getty Images)
Image: Manfred Weber is backed by the likes of Angela Merkel

However, to secure that position, the successful candidate needs the backing of a qualified majority of the European Council (the elected EU leaders) and a majority from the European Parliament (the 751 elected MEPs).

The official lead candidate is German MEP Manfred Weber because the political group to which his German party is associated (the centre right EPP) is the largest in the parliament.

But, despite being backed by German Chancellor Merkel, Mr Weber isn't all that popular among the EU leaders who also don't hugely like the spitzenkandidat process either.

Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite (C) casts her ballot during an early vote, five days ahead of the second round of presidential elections, at a polling station in Vilnius, Lithuania, on May 21, 2019. - An economist and political novice, Gitanas Nauseda, took a thin lead in the first round of Lithuania's presidential election on Sunday, May 12, 2019, and will face Ingrida Simonyte, a conservative ex-finance minister, in a May 26 run-off set to focus on inequality and poverty in the Baltic eurozone state. (Photo by Petras Malukas / AFP)        (Photo credit should read PETRAS MALUKAS/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite may have a new job soon

Here's where the horse trading comes in. Different EU countries have different visions for the EU. If they can get their candidate into the top job in the Commission then their vision can be realised.

It is perfectly possible that none of the candidates put forward from each of the European Parliament political groups actually gets the job.

French President Emanuel Macron, who is pushing for liberal-leaning reforms and further EU integration, doesn't like Mr Weber and his centre-right vision.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte arrive to give a press conference on May 16, 2019 at the Chancellery in Berlin. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP)        (Photo credit should read ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: Angela Merkel and Mark Rutte could be going head-to-head for the council presidency

Mr Weber may also struggle to get a majority in the Parliament because the weekend's European Parliament elections gave a boost for the liberal ALDE group and the Greens too.

So, at tonight's summit, the outgoing council president Mr Tusk will try to begin to find some consensus among the leaders.

Is there a candidate they can agree on? Is there a compromise candidate? If certain countries are satisfied with their person in another job - high representative in the EEAS or head of the ECB then can consensus be found that way?

Tory leadership race: The runners and riders vying to replace Theresa May
Tory leadership race: The runners and riders vying to replace Theresa May

Sky News takes a look at the Conservatives who are trying to get their way in to Number 10.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde arrives to attend the Paris Forum at the Economy Ministry in Paris on May 7, 2019. (Photo by ERIC PIERMONT / AFP)        (Photo credit should read ERIC PIERMONT/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is on the list of names to head the Commission

The names to watch out for over the next few weeks:

:: For Commission President

  • Mr Weber as mentioned above
  • Michel Barnier (the EU Brexit Negotiator and a Macron favourite)
  • Margrethe Vestager (outgoing Competition Commissioner & ALDE/liberal spitzenkandidat)
  • Franz Timmermans (outgoing vice-President of Commission and S&D/centre-left spitzenkandidat
  • Christine Lagarde (head of the International Monetary Fund)
Frans Timmermans, European Commission Vice President and top candidate of the Party of European Socialists (PES) for Commission President position, gives a speech during a EPP election-nightgives a speech during a EPP election-night event for European parliamentary elections in Brussels on May 26, 2019. (Photo by JOHN THYS / AFP) / The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by JOHN THYS                  has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [Frans Timmermans, European Commission Vice President and top candidate of the Party of European Socialists (PES) ] instead of [Manfred WEber]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require.        (Photo credit should read JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: Frans Timmermans is a name touted for Commission president

:: For the Council President

  • Dalia Grybauskaite (current President of Lithuania)
  • Mark Rutte (current Prime Minister of Netherlands)
  • Angela Merkel (current German Chancellor)

Why should all this be of particular interest to readers in the UK? Because whether Britain leaves the EU with a deal, without a deal or stay in, it will be the new guard in Brussels with whom the British government will be forced to deal.