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Analysis

Iran and Israel - a new conflict in the making?

The risk to the region, and particularly Syria - already suffering from the consequences of war - is enormous, writes Alex Rossi.

Tensions have been rising for daysa
Image: Israel and Iran have traded airstrikes
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The long war between Iran and Israel, which has been fought in the shadows for years, is now spilling out into the open.

Israel, along with its ally the United States, it seems, now favours a direct confrontation with Tehran in Syria to prevent the further build-up of arms.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for many years seen Iran as an existential threat and has been making the case more vocally in recent days that it is better to deal with that danger now rather than later.

Israel has carried out more than a hundred airstrikes in Syria on Iranian and Hezbollah targets since the Syrian war started, but they are rarely confirmed officially.

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Iran nuclear crisis: What next?

We have now seen the two foes trade blows.

Israel says its forces in the occupied Golan Heights were targeted by Iranian rocket fire.

More than 20 Fajr 5 and Grad rockets were launched - four of them were intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome defence system and the rest fell short, crashing into Syrian soil.

More on Iran

Israeli soldiers walk among armoured vehicles in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights,
Image: Israeli soldiers walk among armoured vehicles in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights

In response, the IDF says it retaliated on a "large scale" against "significant components" of the "Iranian establishment" in Syria.

It says its fighter jets struck intelligence sites, a logistic headquarters, military compounds, observation posts and the rocket launcher.

It is still not clear whether the Israeli response is over - it may well be that we see additional strikes.

And then there is also the possibility that Iran will retaliate in some shape or form.

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Syria air defences 'bring down Israeli missiles'

The risk to the region, and particularly Syria - already suffering from the consequences of war - is enormous.

Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the nuclear agreement - and his reasoning behind it - will be interpreted in Tehran as the first step towards regime change.

European diplomats have accused Washington of "diplomatic vandalism". It is also an enormous gamble.

The best case scenario is that after short-term tensions, a new deal will somehow be negotiated but equally, with Iran isolated, it could be what plunges the region into a new conflict.

The next few days will be pivotal.