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Analysis

Jamal Khashoggi murder investigation: Saudi Arabia allies watch with growing concern

Despite being accused of involvement in the killing, Mohammed bin Salman presents himself as one of those who seek justice.

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Khashoggi death 'painful and unjustified'
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Saudi Arabia's crown prince struck the tone of outraged leader rather than alleged suspect in his first public speech since the murder of a Saudi journalist in Istanbul three weeks ago.

Mohammed bin Salman pointedly declared his country and Turkey would only stay united with him, his father and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in power, as he accused forces of trying to use Jamal Khashoggi's death to drive a wedge between them.

The kingdom's de facto ruler vowed that those responsible for what he described as a "heinous crime" would be held to account, adding "justice will prevail".

Jamal Khashoggi was killed after going into the consulate on 2 October
Image: Jamal Khashoggi was killed after going into the consulate on 2 October

It was the kind of language you would expect to hear from a leading figure of a country that has just had a citizen killed in one of its consulates.

The problem is that Turkish officials and commentators have signalled such a crime - allegedly carried out by a hit-squad of 15 men - could only have taken place with the knowledge of a senior member of the Saudi royal family such as Prince Mohammed.

A picture taken on October 22, 2018 shows a portrait of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in the capital Riyadh one day ahead of the the Future Investment Initiative FII conference that will take place in Riyadh from 23-25 October. - Saudi Arabia will host a key investment summit overshadowed by the killing of critic Jamal Khashoggi that has prompted a wave of policymakers and corporate giants to withdraw. (Photo by FAYEZ NURELDINE / AFP) (Photo credit should read FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/
Image: Portraits of Mohammed bin Salman hang in the capital Riyadh ahead of the city's high-profile conference

The crown prince was addressing a friendly crowd as he made his remarks at an investment conference in Riyadh that has been widely boycotted by British, US and other western political leaders and business chiefs in protest at Mr Khashoggi's killing on 2 October.

His comments drew bursts of applause, perhaps offering him hope that his position as rising star of the world's biggest oil producer remains guaranteed.

More on Jamal Khashoggi

Saudi crown prince calls journalist's killing 'heinous crime'
Saudi crown prince calls journalist's killing 'heinous crime'

Mohammed bin Salman commented on the writer's death at a conference in the Saudi capital

However beyond his shores, long-standing allies of Saudi Arabia are watching with growing concern as Turkish investigators probing what happened to Mr Khashoggi inside the consulate gather evidence that points to a pre-meditated assassination.

Significantly, President Trump yesterday broke with what had until that point been unequivocal support for Prince Mohammed, raising the possibility he could be implicated.

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President Trump said the Saudis staged the 'worst cover-up ever' over the death

This came after Gina Haspel, the head of the CIA, paid a flying visit to Istanbul where she was given access to the findings so far of the Turkish investigation.

Saudi Arabia claims Mr Khashoggi was killed in a "rogue operation" following a fist fight have been widely met with scepticism. The US, Britain and others have described the explanation as not credible and demanded answers backed up by facts.

Should evidence emerge linking the crown prince to the crime, Washington, London and other western capitals will face the prospect of needing to punish their key ally in the Gulf.

The stakes could not be higher given the role Saudi Arabia plays in supporting US foreign policy against Iran as well as US and UK policy towards the conflict in Syria and the wider fight against Islamist terrorism.

And then there is the country's importance as an oil producer as well as - for the UK in particular - a significant market for arms.

The crown prince will be hoping that the fallout from the Khashoggi probe can be contained and he will continue on his succession path untainted.

It remains to be seen whether this is wishful thinking.