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Money blog: 'Uncomfortable reality check' for home buyers; Tesco makes 80 prices cheaper

Welcome to the Money blog, Sky News' personal finance and consumer hub. Inflation came in at 3.4% for May; house price growth has slowed for the first time since 2023; and Tesco is price-matching more Aldi products.

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Two lenders cut high LTV mortgage rates

In good news for potential home buyers with a small deposit, three lenders have cut rates on some of their high loan-to-value mortgages. 

Santander lowered all two and five year fixed rate deals at 85% to 90% LTV by as much as 0.15% for first time buyers. 

A five-year fix at 95% LTV has been reduced by 0.22% to 4.85% with no fee and 拢250 cashback. 

Across its residential home mover products for new build, most options at 85-95% LTV, fixed for two or five years, have also been cut by up to 0.12%.

Clydesdale Bank made similar changes, reducing selected two and five year rates at 90% to 95% LTV by up to 0.2%. 

It also cut its two-year purchase exclusive rate at 95% LTV by up to 0.23%.

A number of residential two and five-year professional and newly qualified rates at 85-95% LTV have been reduced by as much as 0.25%. 

Is the cost of living crisis over? Here's what the data reveals

Is the cost of living crisis over?

If you're looking purely at the annual inflation data, the numbers us journalists, not to mention politicians and economists, tend to focus on, the answer might seem like: probably, yes.

Sure, the rate is, at 3.4% in May, higher than the Bank of England's 2% target. But it's far below the double-digit peaks experienced in 2022. Plus, the Bank itself thinks prices are likely to drop back down towards 2% in the coming year or two, even assuming a few more interest rate cuts. End of story, right?

Well, not quite. Because look a bit deeper into the numbers and you notice a couple of important things.

The first is that whether the cost of living squeeze is over really depends on how you slice up the numbers.

Look in a slightly different way and actually this is still an ongoing crisis for millions of families around the country.

An ongoing crisis

To see what I mean, recall that when economists talk about inflation, they are really referring to something quite specific. The rate at which the average level of prices across the economy (actually, it's a shopping basket of representative goods) has changed over the past year.

And the change in that level over the past year is indeed 3.4%. But look back a bit further, say the past four years, and the rate of change is 25%.

Why looking back makes sense

Both of these numbers are accurate. They are both expressions of inflation, except that one is for a single year and the other is for a four-year period. But when you're going to the supermarket, or buying a big ticket item like a computer or a car, are you really thinking back over a 12-month horizon or, perhaps, thinking back further?

For a lot of people, that four-year horizon feels much more representative of their everyday lives and retail decisions than the one-year horizon. True: the fact that it's up 25% is largely because of the enormous rise in prices in 2022 amid the energy price shock and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But (and one can't emphasise this enough), it's not like prices went up and then went down. The prices went up and stayed up (in fact, they carried on getting more expensive).

And when you look at the four-year, "recent memory" rate of inflation, it's higher in recent months than any period going back to the early 1990s.

Now, economists have very good reasons for focusing on the annual rate of inflation. But by the same token, you can see why so many people scoff when they see the latest inflation data, finding it bears little resemblance to their lived experience. The problem isn't so much the data itself but the way we focus on an annual rate.

Tesco price matches more Aldi products

Tesco is price matching more Aldi products as competition from budget supermarkets mounts. 

Britain's largest supermarket will cut the price of at least 80 products as part of the scheme, taking the total to more than 500. 

The price of baby tomatoes, houmous, onions, lettuce, ice cream, fish and steak have all been reduced. 

You can search all the products . 

Aldi has been named the cheapest supermarket by consumer group Which? for the past 18 months, with the average 82-product shop costing 拢135.48 - 拢14.78 less than Tesco. 

Sainsbury's also uses the Aldi price match scheme, offering the budget supermarket's prices on 800 products. 

House price growth slows for first time since 2023

The annual rate of house price growth has slowed for the first time since December 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics.

House prices increased by 3.5% in the 12 months to April, halving from 7% in March after stamp duty discounts were cut for some home buyers. 

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank said: "The UK housing market is still in recovery mode after the stamp duty cliff edge in April but prices are being kept firmly in check by an overhang of supply."

Justin Moy, managing director at mortgage brokers EHF Mortgages, added: "A slowdown was always on the cards given the efforts by most buyers to move before the stamp duty threshold changes. 

"In isolation, it's hard to plot the next few months data, but when costs of moving home increase, and mortgage rates are also increasing a little in addition to unemployment also worsening, don't be surprised to see the market flat line soon."

In England, the average home now costs 拢286,000 - 3% more than the same time last year. 

The North East had the highest house price inflation at 6.4% - although this was a significant slowdown from 15.3% in March. 

Annual house price inflation was lowest in the South West, at 0.9%. 

London was the only region where the house price annual inflation rate was higher in April (3.3%) than in March (0.9%).

You can see what the average house price is in your local area... 

What's happening with rents? 

The average rent in the UK has increased by 拢87 a month to 拢1,339 in the past year, ONS data shows.

London remains the most expensive place to rent privately, with the average price coming in at 拢2,249 a month. 

The North East is the cheapest at 拢733 a month, but prices have increased the most here, by 9.7%. 

Here's a look at how the rest of the country has fared... 

"We expect the rate of rental inflation to slow in the coming months, which will be welcome news for renters," Richard Donnell, executive director of research at Zoopla, said. 

"Rental inflation for those taking new tenancies are rising at their slowest rate for four years." 

Aldi targets 20 new store locations - here's where

Aldi has earmarked 20 new store locations across the UK and asked shoppers to suggest places that are most in need of one. 

The budget supermarket, which is the fourth-largest in the UK, has more than 1,050 stores but is working towards a long-term goal of 1,500. 

Here are the locations where it is looking for sites: 

  • Braintree, Essex
  • Bromley, Greater London
  • Chesham, Buckinghamshire
  • Balby, Doncaster, South Yorkshire
  • Ealing, Greater London
  • Ferndown, Dorset
  • Hitchin, Hertfordshire
  • Kenilworth, Warwickshire
  • Kirkby, Merseyside
  • Largs, North Ayrshire
  • Pickering, North Yorkshire
  • Ponteland, Northumberland
  • South Croydon, Greater London
  • South Shields, Tyne and Wear
  • Tadcaster, North Yorkshire
  • Uckfield, East Sussex
  • Warwick, Warwickshire
  • Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Witney, Oxfordshire
  • Worthing, West Sussex

Each site needs to be big enough for a 20,000 sq ft store with around 100 parking spaces.

Ideally, it will also be near a main road with good visibility and access. 

"We want to make high-quality, affordable food accessible to everyone, and that means opening new stores in the communities that need them most," Jonathan Neale, managing director of national real estate at Aldi, said. 

"The response from the public has been invaluable in helping us identify where demand is greatest, and where we need to focus our efforts on finding the sites that can become new stores." 

If you have a suggestion for the supermarket, you can get in touch by email . 

Co-op offering 25% discount as 'thank you' to members after cyber attack

Co-op is offering its members a 25% discount on a 拢40 shop as a "thank you" gesture after being hit by a major cyberattack. 

The retailer's stock was affected due to the attack in May, leaving shelves bare and shoppers frustrated. 

Hackers also stole personal data, including members' names and contact details. 

The offer runs from 18 to 24 June and can be used by members, including new ones, once.

Co-op managing director of food Matt Hood said: "We are so grateful to our member owners for their support and patience with us during what was a very difficult time and hope this gesture of appreciation goes a little way to showing them our thanks, with more value rewards to come over the summer."

Oil prices rise again as Trump weighs up US military involvement in Middle East conflict

By James Sillars, business and economics reporter 

Oil prices have been bubbling upwards again due to developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.

The cost of a barrel of Brent crude ticked up near to $77 - a 4% rise - late yesterday after it became known that Donald Trump was considering US military involvement.

He has since urged Iran to accept an "unconditional surrender".

Brent has slipped back slightly but the market remains glued to events.

UK natural gas costs are matching the upwards trend with LSEG data for day-ahead delivery contracts currently 16% up on levels seen earlier this month.

If sustained, it doesn't bode well for the next energy price cap review and bills from October - but it's early days. 

More widely on the financial markets, the FTSE 100 has risen 0.1% at the open to 8,844 following yesterday's decline of almost 0.5%.

The rally, if you can call it that, is quite broad-based.

The pound is being supported by a weakening dollar ahead of the US interest rate decision this evening.

No change is widely anticipated. Donald Trump is demanding a cut. There could be fireworks...

Inflation will be 'uncomfortable reality check' for home buyers

Today's inflation figure will be an "uncomfortable reality check" for home buyers, an expert has warned. 

Peter Stimson, director of mortgages at the lender MPowered said rates could start to increase in the coming weeks as swap rates, which influence what lenders charge borrowers, rise. 

"For anyone planning to buy their first home or remortgage this summer, who'd been assuming that the only way is down from mortgage interest rates, today's data will be an uncomfortable reality check," he said. 

"Mortgage rates may well have fallen as far as they can for now, and in the coming weeks, rates may even creep up back as lenders recalibrate in response to rising swap rates." 

High inflation, grouped with rising oil prices and global economic uncertainty, means the chances of the Bank of England reducing its interest rate tomorrow are virtually non-existent. 

"The swaps market... is already implying that there will be just one further cut to the base rate this year," Stimson added. 

"Until last week, it wasn't unreasonable to expect that this cut might come in August. But with inflation proving increasingly stubborn, the probability of this happening has slipped to no more than 50/50." 

'Focus on getting best available rates'

His thoughts were echoed by David Hollingworth, associate director at the UK's largest mortgage broker L&C Mortgages, who said borrowers should be focusing on getting the best available rate. 

"Mortgage rates have been harder to call in recent weeks.  After a period of fixed rate increases, there's now a more mixed move in rates with some lenders cutting deals again slightly, as markets find their level," he said. 

"Overall, it looks as though fixed rates may bobble up and down without any significant trend or shift either way.  Borrowers would be better to focus on getting the best available rates and keeping under review, rather than second-guessing the next move in interest rates."

Officially inflation eased in May - but here's why it didn't really

You might have seen news outlets reporting this morning's inflation data slightly differently. Some, like us,  have said it has eased, while others have said it has stayed the same. 

Here's why. 

Officially, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, inflation fell from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. 

But the ONS has also said that April's initial data was incorrect and should have been 3.4%. 

This was because it uncovered an error in the vehicle tax numbers provided to them by the Department for Transport. 

When a mistake is made, the ONS can revise the data, correcting it on the record, but despite acknowledging the error, it did not issue a revision. 

It said: "In line with our revisions policy, the April figures have not been amended but the correct vehicle excise data information has been used when producing the May index." 

What does this mean for tomorrow's interest rate decision?

Inflation is one of the economic indicators closely watched by the Bank of England when it sets its base rate. 

When inflation is high, it tends to increase the rate to try to slow spending and encourage people to save, which helps to bring inflation back down. 

When inflation falls, interest rates usually follow.

The Bank will make its next interest rate decision tomorrow, but despite inflation easing slightly, economists are expecting it to hold it at 4.25%. 

This is due to a number of factors, including rising oil and gas prices caused by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and uncertainty around the global economy thanks to Donald Trump's tariffs. 

"The recent movements in energy prices add further uncertainty to an already volatile global economic backdrop," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, one of the biggest UK accounting firms, said.

"This presents another challenge for the Bank of England to navigate and tomorrow's meeting is unlikely to result in a shift from the MPC's cautious approach.

"Nonetheless, developments on the domestic front should provide some comfort, with early indications that the disinflation process remains on track despite the recent rise in labour costs."