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Politics latest: Impact of PM's welfare U-turn revealed ahead of pivotal vote

MPs will vote on the prime minister's welfare reforms on Tuesday - with a Labour rebellion against the measures still likely. Modelling undertaken by the government says that even with changes to the reforms forced by rebels, the legislation will still push 150,000 people into poverty.

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Welfare, Glastonbury and oil statements in House later today

We've just had confirmation of what statements ministers will be giving in the House of Commons today.

From 3.30pm, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall will give a statement on welfare reforms as the government fends off rebellion.

Then, around an hour later (parliamentary times are never precise), Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy will speak about "Glastonbury and the BBC", after chants of "death to the IDF" at the festival.

And then at around 5.30pm, Energy Minister Michael Shanks will speak about Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery crashing into administration, which Sky City editor Mark Kleinman revealed this morning.

No plans for Ukraine-style visa scheme for people fleeing Gaza war

There appear to be no plans for a visa scheme to let people from Gaza with family in Britain to move here.

Number 10 has been asked about an exclusive report by our political reporter Alix Culbertson, with dozens of MPs having written to the prime minister asking for the government to match previous Tory initiatives set up for Ukrainians and Hong Kongers fleeing their homes.

Asked if they'd consider a similar scheme for those in Gaza, a spokesperson suggested there was already a "range of routes" available.

"We want an immediate ceasefire, hostages released and more aid into Gaza," they added. "Our focus is on an immediate ceasefire."

Downing Street won't say if PM has confidence in BBC boss

The prime minister's spokesperson was just asked for the government's position on the chants of "death to the IDF" at Glastonbury.

The BBC has said it should not have live-streamed the chants, started by punk outfit Bob Vylan.

We already knew Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy had spoken to BBC chief Tim Davie, but the spokesperson says she is expecting to be updated in a "timely" fashion.

Asked if Sir Keir Starmer still has confidence in Davie, the spokesperson would only refer journalists to the PM's words yesterday condemning "hate speech".

They gave a similar answer when asked if the chants were antisemitic.

No 10 defends welfare reforms despite poverty estimate

Downing Street has said updated modelling on the impact of the government's welfare cuts "doesn't reflect the full picture".

The cuts being proposed are still estimated to push 150,000 people into poverty, despite the scaling back of a crackdown on people claiming personal independence payments at the universal credit health top-up.

The original plans were estimated to push 250,000 people into poverty.

Downing Street said there is "uncertainty" around the projections because they don't take into account other government action, including NHS investment and employment support.

"All our support directly helps people moving to work and becoming financially independent," they added.

Whether that's a strong enough argument to win over enough Labour rebels before tomorrow's vote remains to be seen.

Still 150,000 more people in poverty due to proposed welfare cuts

An extra 150,000 people will be in relative poverty after housing costs if the government's welfare cuts come into effect.

That's according to , which takes into account the watered down changes to personal independence payments and the health top-up for universal credit.

Originally, the changes were estimated to push 250,000 people into poverty.

Therefore, the U-turn last week means 100,000 fewer people are estimated to go into poverty when compared to the original changes.

For context: Originally, the government was to make it harder for all claimants to get PIP and the universal credit top-up. Now, it's only being made harder for new claimants, not existing ones.

The new assessment also states: "The impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is expected to be negligible."

This initial assessment estimated that 50,000 children would be in relative poverty by the end of the decade.

The modelling also does not take account of extra money the government is putting in to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.

UK-US trade deal comes into effect

Remember the trade deal Sir Keir Starmer agreed with Donald Trump? It's finally come into effect.

The deal was agreed at the start of May, and there have been some changes since it was first signed off.

For example, levies on steel have been left standing at 25% rather than falling to zero as originally agreed.

However, car manufacturers exporting to the US will face only a 10% tariff, down from 27.5%.

The aerospace sector will have its 10% tariff removed entirely.

Talks are ongoing to secure 0% tariffs on core steel products from the UK.

Even in its current form, Starmer says the deal will safeguard "key industries that are vital to our economy".

What are the welfare changes the government has rowed back on?

The government has made significant concessions on personal independence payments (PIP) and universal credit in a bid to quell a Labour rebellion against its welfare reforms.

More than 120 rebels had signed a "reasoned amendment" aimed at overhauling the policy, which significantly tightened eligibility criteria for disability benefits.

But what exactly was the government planning that caused such consternation?

Changes to PIP

The biggest shakeup to the system involved changes to PIP - money given to people including some of whom are in work - who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.

From November 2026, people would need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP - instead of fewer points spread across a range of tasks.

This would have impacted existing claimants as well as new ones. The government's concessions see this change dropped for existing claimants.

Overhaul of universal credit

The government intended to freeze the health element of universal credit, claimed by more than two million people, at 拢97 a week during this parliament, and cut the rate to 拢50 for new claimants.

Again, the concessions mean this change now won't apply to existing claimants. We will find out more later today.

Palestine Action appealing against proscription

The group that claimed responsibility for a break-in at RAF Brize Norton are appealing against the government's decision to proscribe them as a terrorist organisation.

This move by Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would make it illegal to support or be a member of Palestine Action.

The group caused millions of pounds of damage to RAF planes during the break-in.

In an urgent hearing this morning, lawyers for Huda Ammori, co-founder of the group, said they would seek "interim relief" at a hearing on Friday, which could block the government from proscribing the group.

Five people have been arrested on suspicion of terror offences following the incident at Brize Norton.

Challenge against continued F35 exports to Israel fails

News from the High Court, where a legal challenge against the government's continuing export of military equipment - including parts of F35 fighter jets - has failed.

Al-Haq, a Palestinian NGO, took action against the government over the decision to keep exporting parts of the jets.

Last year, the government suspended licences for the export of weapons and military equipment to Israel after a review of its compliance with international law.

But an exemption was made for parts of the F35, with the government saying the complex supply chain made it hard to exclude Israel and not other countries at the same time.

Al-Haq argued this "carve-out" was unlawful and "gives rise to a significant risk of facilitating crime".

The government argued the exemption was lawful.

In their judgement, Lord Justice Males and Mrs Justice Steyn said the case was about a "much more focused issue" than the carve-out itself.

The judges said the case was "acutely sensitive and political", and therefore should be determined by the "democratically accountable" government rather than the courts.

How many rebels needed to defeat government?

With a big chunk of Labour rebels rowing in behind the government, it's worth looking again at the numbers needed in parliament to defeat Sir Keir Starmer.

Due to the size of his majority, a rebellion would need at least 83 Labour MPs to sink the PM's wishes - alongside every opposition MP.

Currently, it is thought around 60 Labour MPs are wanting to rebel against the government - and it's not clear which way the Conservatives will vote.

However, if we get even further into the minutiae, there are two opportunities for the rebels to go against the government.

One is to table an amendment which would kill the bill.

The other is to vote against the bill as a whole.

This first step will be supported by Labour rebels, and potentially others like the Liberal Democrats and Greens.

However, if this first attempt fails, it is the second step that could see the Conservatives voting alongside left wing MPs.

The Tories may vote against the bill as a whole for not going far enough on changes, while Labour rebels will be voting against it for going too far.

But again, the numbers required for this to actually defeat the government seem like they are potentially unreachable for rebels.