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Is the cost of living crisis over?

If you're looking purely at the annual inflation data, the numbers us journalists, not to mention politicians and economists, tend to focus on, the answer might seem like: probably, yes.

Sure, the rate is, at 3.4% in May, higher than the Bank of England's 2% target. But it's far below the double-digit peaks experienced in 2022. Plus, the Bank itself thinks prices are likely to drop back down towards 2% in the coming year or two, even assuming a few more interest rate cuts. End of story, right?

Well, not quite. Because look a bit deeper into the numbers and you notice a couple of important things.

Here's a rule I tend to apply across the board in Westminster: If a politician is talking, politics is probably taking place.

Add into that, if the topic of debate is especially grave or serious, be more prepared to apply the rule, not less.

There is no doubt Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was politicising the issue when she ripped into the government in the Commons on Monday.

In fact, she admitted as much.

Asked about it during her news conference, she said: "When I'm in the Commons, I will do politics. If every time we are pointing things out and doing our job we are accused of politicising something, it makes it a lot harder."

So the question here is less about whether politics is at play (it almost always is and that's not necessarily a bad thing), and more about whose interests the politics is working towards.

In other words, does Ms Badenoch care about the grooming scandal because she cares about victims or because she cares about herself?

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has announced new protections in a bill which will attempt to cut benefits to more than three million households.

In its current form, the government faces a big rebellion from dozens of Labour MPs over concerns that changes to welfare will drive families into poverty.

On today's episode, Matt Barbet is joined by political correspondent Tamara Cohen to discuss the backlash from inside the Labour Party and the wider public.

We've just had a statement from Downing Street following the conclusion of the COBRA meeting on the Israel-Iran conflict.

A spokeswoman said: "The prime minister chaired a ministerial COBRA meeting this afternoon on the situation in the Middle East.

"Ministers were updated on efforts to support British nationals in the region and protect regional security, as well as ongoing diplomatic efforts."

It is understood that Sir Keir Starmer will continue to have calls with regional counterparts on the situation.

British nationals are not currently being offered repatriation flights by the UK government. Instead, they are being advised to shelter in place, or can receive assistance in Jordan or Egypt from Foreign Office teams, should they choose to leave by land.

The COBRA meeting about the Israel-Iran conflict has now finished, Sky News understands.

COBRA - which stands for Cabinet Office Briefing Room A - is often called in times of emergency, such as civil unrest or flooding.

It was chaired by the prime minister, and also in attendance were Foreign Secretary David Lammy, UK ambassador to the US Lord Peter Mandelson, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.

Other ministers and officials were also likely present, but they were not spotted by the (many) cameras outside the building.

The UK's defence chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, was also spotted entering Downing Street. He has since made his scheduled appearance at an event nearby.

Sky News' Sam Coates and Politico's Anne McElvoy serve up their essential guide to the day in British politics.

They start by picking over what Keir Starmer had to say about the potential for an American attack on Iran 鈥� which sounded rather different from the line his German counterpart was taking. So what was going on there then?

Back in Westminster, the details of benefit cuts which will impact millions get published 鈥� the government needs to convince dozens of Labour MPs to back the plan.

And HS2 slows down 鈥� we'll hear today that the new line will be delayed beyond 2033.

The UK's chief of the defence staff has arrived for the COBRA meeting on the Israel-Iran war.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin was spotted walking up Whitehall, along with his protection detail.

He is due to be giving a speech in less than 45 minutes - it's unclear if that is still the plan.

Cabinet ministers have started to arrive in Downing Street for the COBRA meeting due to take place shortly on the conflict between Israel and Iran.

Also spotted was the UK's ambassador to the US, Lord Peter Mandelson, who was already in the UK for a pre-scheduled engagement.

It comes amid reports the US is considering joining Israel in striking Iran.

In the wake of the publication of the government's bill to slash welfare spending, we've had some responses from charities criticising the decision.

Jackie O'Sullivan, executive director of strategy and influence at learning disability charity Mencap, said in a statement that the government has chosen to "turn its back on thousands of disabled people", and these reforms are "causing a huge amount of anxiety".

She said a recent survey they conducted of people with a learning disability found "an alarming 70% would need to cut down on food if they lose PIP, while over half (60%) said they would need to cut back on heating and nearly half (45%) were worried they would be unable to leave their home".

She added that these statistics "paint a very grave picture" and the government should "go back to the drawing board"

James Taylor, director of strategy at disability equality charity Scope described the bill's effects as "catastrophic", saying it will "plunge hundreds of thousands into poverty".

"It will have a devastating effect on disabled people's health, ability to live independently or work," he continued, and called on ministers to "change course".

And Minesh Patel, associate director of policy and influencing at Mind, said: "Struggling with your mental health is not a choice, but it is a political choice to attempt to fix the public finances by cutting the incomes of disabled people."

He described the government's plans as "short-sighted, counter-productive and harmful in the extreme", and called on MPs to oppose the bill and force a rethink.

The government's controversial legislation to slash benefits and get more people into work has now been published.

The plans will impact more than three million households - and the government faces quite the battle to convince dozens of Labour MPs to back it.

Liz Kendall, the welfare secretary, has set out proposals to cut 拢5bn from the welfare budget - which she has said is "unsustainable" and "trapping people in welfare dependency".

Disabled people claiming PIP, the personal independence payment which helps people - some of them working - with the increased costs of daily living, face having their awards reviewed from the end of next year.

An estimated 800,000 current and future PIP recipients will lose an average of 拢4,500 a year, according to a government assessment.

Watch: Sky's Tamara Cohen explains the battle over welfare reforms

The government also intends to freeze the health element of Universal Credit, claimed by more than two million people, at 拢97 a week during this parliament, and cut the rate to 拢50 for new claimants.

Under pressure from Labour MPs concerned particularly that changes to PIP will drive families into poverty, Ms Kendall will announce new protections in the bill today.

Sky News understands they include a 13-week transition period for those losing PIP; a higher rate of Universal Credit for people with the most serious conditions; and a commitment that disabled people who take a job will not immediately lose their benefits.

Some 40 Labour MPs have signed a letter refusing to support the cuts; and dozens of others have concerns, including ministers.