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The government has made an offer to rebel Labour MPs over its controversial welfare reforms, Sky News understands.

One senior source told our political editor Beth Rigby they think it is a good package with generous concessions, and some rebels are minded to accept it.

Changes are understood to include dropping the changes to personal independence payments (PIP) and the health top-up to universal credit for existing claimants.

It is up to individual MPs as to whether they withdraw their names from the amendment that had threatened to kill the government's proposals.

Three years ago today, Zara Aleena was sexually assaulted and murdered as she was walking home in east London.

The perpetrator was a man who had been released from prison on licence just nine days previously, and who should have been recalled to prison for committing other offences.

The final guest on tonight's edition of Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is Zara's aunt, Farah Naz, who is due to meet soon with Sir Keir Starmer.

Asked what she wants to say to him, she replies: "I do think [leaders] need to listen to people like us.

"We keep them on their toes, and I think they just need to look at us sometimes because they need to see the pain in order to stay motivated.

"And I'm not saying that Keir Starmer wouldn't be motivated - I see that he is. But I think one can forget that there are people behind statistics, and one can get the urgency that is needed to change violence towards women and girls."

Probation service 'was dismantled'

Naz has particular concerns about the probation services, and that sex offenders are being released earlier in their sentences due to overcrowding in prisons.

She tells Sophy she has had "many meetings" with the probation service, and they have apologised and acknowledged their mistakes.

"They have addressed all the holes that led to [Zara's killer] being on the street, and they've done a little more than that as well. And they're consistently doing more than that," she says.

"But this is a service that was dismantled, as we all know, over the last 20 years. And it isn't going to be fixed that quickly.

"I don't trust that those holes will stay closed because actually, when a service is consistently stressed, if things are happening in prisons, if there are more prisoners that probation officers need to see, then the service will be stressed.

"And the more services stress, the more the holes will appear again, and holes tend to appear in the same places."

Government sending 'mixed message'

She calls for more to be done to improve the service, and the others that it works with.

Naz says Labour's pledge to halve violence against women and girls is "wonderful" and "bold" - but budget cuts sends a "mixed message" which is "deeply distressing".

Next with the former boss of the Foreign Office, Lord Simon McDonald, we turn to events in the Middle East, and Sophy Ridge asks him how concerned he is about Iran.

He replies that "nobody knows the extent of the damage" to their nuclear programme, but points out that strikes in Iraq and Syria on nascent nuclear programmes were previously successful.

The Iranians learned lessons from that, and assessing the overall damage - given how inaccessible Iran is - will "take some time".

He says: "It will be weeks, if not months, before there's an accurate assessment about how lasting the damage is. There's certainly been a lot of damage, but whether it is permanent, we won't know for a while."

Asked directly if the world is safer or not after the US strikes, Lord McDonald replies: "Safer. The idea of Iran with a nuclear weapon horrifies me."

One of the most stunning moments of this week was when the NATO chief, Mark Rutte, referred to Donald Trump as "daddy".

Watch that moment here...

Sophy Ridge asks the former boss of the Foreign Office, Lord Simon McDonald if he has ever seen anything like it in his diplomatic career, he replies: "No. But I've never seen anything like Donald Trump in my diplomatic career."

He goes on to say that Trump deciding to post online a fawning message from the NATO chief was always "in danger of being leaked" because "that is Mr Trump's modus operandi".

"Anything nice about him needs to get a wider public, so I don't think anybody in the NATO HQ can be shocked at that," Lord McDonald continues.

"But his [Rutte's] performance indeed was at one extreme end of the spectrum, but the other end of the spectrum was pretty nice to Trump as well."

The first guest on tonight's edition of Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is Lord Simon McDonald, the former top civil servant at the Foreign Office, and he is asked first about the welfare versus warfare debate.

He points out the government does not have to deliver the promised defence spending hike immediately, which is "good news for the government".

He explains: "Usually this is paid for out of economic growth. But right now we know the economy is barely growing at all.

"So the government has multiple financial challenges because not only must it increase the defence budget significantly, it is clearly finding it difficult to reshape the social security budget."

Defence budget sums are 'eye-watering'

Such an increase in defence spending is a "necessary thing" - but he questions whether this level is "justified" because while Russia is a "considerable foe", it is not winning the war in Ukraine.

"So wrecking the rest of our economy for an enemy that isn't winning the war it's fighting right now is, I think, something that needs to be debated more in the coming years," he argues.

Lord McDonald is clear that defence spending needs to increase, but says the amounts we are talking about are "eye-watering".

A lot of this is being done "to please Donald Trump", who has had an "excellent week" - but there is "wiggle room" for allies in the future because a big chunk of the spending increase is due to kick in after he leaves office.

We've just been hearing from our political editor Beth Rigby about the government's failure to realise the scale of discontent among its own MPs at the cuts to welfare.

She explains that for the past 12 days, the PM has been dealing with foreign affairs - first, the G7 in Canada, which saw a meeting with Trump, getting a trade deal over the line, and trying to stop escalation in the Middle East, then the US attack on Iran over the weekend, followed by the NATO summit this week.

Beth says: "In a way, you could forgive him for being pretty angry that those who should have been managing the shop back home have ended up in a situation where there is such an enormous blow-up with MPs."

Serious concessions to come

But she also notes that this "didn't come out of the blue", and reveals that a month ago, up to 140 signed a private letter to the party whips warning that "they would not accept this".

"The whips, as I understand it, told No 10, and it seems like No 10 stuck their fingers in their ears and didn't pay attention to it," she says.

Overall, this is "really draining on the PM's authority" because, no matter what is going on internationally, "he carries the can".

"As I understand it now, they are looking at serious concessions in order to get this passed on Tuesday," Beth continues, with the PM having met with rebel MPs today.

Changes could include dropping the changes to personal independence payments (PIP) and the health top-up to universal credit for existing claimants.

Watch: Who will take the fall for welfare chaos?

But if they do that, the chancellor will need to find somewhere else to make billions of pounds of savings.

"It's a hot mess, and it was avoidable, and it has left very bad blood between the parliamentary party and No 10," she says.

"It's less than a year into Starmer's leadership - I've never seen anything like it."

It is honestly quite difficult to believe that a government with a majority of 165 might not be able to get its flagship welfare reforms through the House of Commons.

But more than 126 Labour MPs have put their name to an amendment that would effectively kill the bill because they're worried about cuts to disability benefits, or Personal Independence Payments (PIP).

Just to put that in context - nearly one in three Labour MPs are in open rebellion. We are talking about more MPs than make up the entirety of the Conservative parliamentary party. This is a huge, huge number.

And you've got to ask - how has it got to this stage? What happened to parliamentary management? Why did nobody spot this? Because now No 10 are scrambling to find some concessions - any concessions - to get them back on side.

Here's what one minister told me last night:

Me: "Angela Rayner also said tonight that discussions are ongoing about any concessions. So it does sound like you're in dialogue about perhaps making changes."

Minister Luke Pollard: "Of course we are. I mean, I think there's a concern that's very valid and real for lots of my colleagues."

But my question is - why on earth is this happening just days before the vote, when it's been obvious for months that this was going to be a problem?

I interviewed Tan Dhesi - Labour MP for Slough and chair of the Defence Select Committee - seven weeks ago. He told me then that he - and many other colleagues - were deeply unhappy about the changes to PIP and were telling that to No 10.

So if that was the situation seven weeks ago - what's the government been doing? I just don't understand.

How can you be ambushed by 126 of your own MPs rebelling against you?

Or - if you were aware of the situation - why didn't you do something about it?

Our flagship weeknight politics programme is under way.

Joining us tonight are Lord Simon McDonald, former permanent secretary at the Foreign Office, and Farah Naz, aunt of murdered law graduate Zara Aleena.

On the panel are Mercy Muroki, former Tory adviser, and Caroline Flint, former Labour MP and minister.

Watch live in the stream at the top of this page.

Our politics reporters have been answering your questions about the government's welfare reforms and the rebellion facing the PM.

Scroll down to catch up, or tap through the key points above.

Bailey - what perfect timing for this question.

This morning we reported on an in-depth new poll that showed it's Reform UK that would end up with the most seats in parliament if a general election was held right now.

YouGov carried out its first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last general election. It's based on thousands of people, and links voters and characteristics to help with its projection.

It is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen. The next election is not set to happen until 2029, and it's incredibly unlikely we'll get one before then given Labour's big majority.

With a sample size of 11,500 people, here's what the poll found:

• Reform would win 271 seats;
• Labour would win 178;
• Liberal Democrats would have 81;
• The Tories would slump to 46.

That would leave us with a hung parliament.