Iron chancellor is looking increasingly wobbly as a black hole opens in public finances
The government always knew slashing welfare spending would be highly controversial among its own MPs and traditional supporters - although much more popular with right wing voters.
Just a few days ago, Sir Keir Starmer dismissed the concerns of rebel MPs as "noises off", arguing his government was "reading the room" in its efforts to reform a "broken system" that has seen the welfare bill spiralling in recent years.
Spending on working age disability and incapacity benefits is up 拢20bn since the pandemic, and is set to increase by almost that much again by the end of this parliament, to 拢70bn a year.
But while most in his party agree with the claim that getting more people back into work is in line with Labour values, cutting support for disabled people with the cost of living is much harder to justify.
It highlights the uglier truth that changing the welfare system is about saving money as much as the moral case for reform.
The chancellor badly needed the planned 拢5bn in savings to balance the books and stick to her fiscal rules, which was reinforced by the decision to deepen the original cuts after the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted they didn't save as much as the Treasury had thought.
Cutting help for people who struggle to feed or dress themselves has enraged campaigners and MPs and terrified many disabled people.
But now the government has been forced to back track on these plans. They're facing a big black hole in the budget, as the 拢5bn in savings is baked in to the government finances.
Keeping personal independence payments (PIP) for all claimants is anticipated to cost 拢1.5bn.
The Resolution Foundation estimates that figure could rise to 拢2bn once the linked eligibility for carers' allowance is also taken into account, and calculates that undoing the freeze on the health element of universal credit would cost another 拢1bn.
So that's 拢3bn of the planned 拢5bn in savings wiped out.
Minister Stephen Kinnock couldn't answer where the money to pay for that would come from this morning, saying we'll have to wait for the budget in the autumn.
But for a government which promised no unfunded spending commitments 鈥� the u-turn bill is totting up, with 拢3bn in undone welfare savings, 拢1.25bn in winter fuel payments, not to mention all those big promises to NATO on defence spending too.
The iron chancellor is looking increasingly wobbly.