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With a big chunk of Labour rebels rowing in behind the government, it's worth looking again at the numbers needed in parliament to defeat Sir Keir Starmer.

Due to the size of his majority, a rebellion would need at least 83 Labour MPs to sink the PM's wishes - alongside every opposition MP.

Currently, it is thought around 60 Labour MPs are wanting to rebel against the government - and it's not clear which way the Conservatives will vote.

However, if we get even further into the minutiae, there are two opportunities for the rebels to go against the government.

One is to table an amendment which would kill the bill.

The other is to vote against the bill as a whole.

This first step will be supported by Labour rebels, and potentially others like the Liberal Democrats and Greens.

However, if this first attempt fails, it is the second step that could see the Conservatives voting alongside left wing MPs.

The Tories may vote against the bill as a whole for not going far enough on changes, while Labour rebels will be voting against it for going too far.

But again, the numbers required for this to actually defeat the government seem like they are potentially unreachable for rebels.

 Shadow work and pensions minister Danny Kruger is speaking to Sky News on behalf of the Conservatives this morning.

He is asked whether his party will be supporting the government's benefits reforms tomorrow.

Kruger again repeats that his party is "waiting to see what the government's coming out with".

He said the Tories are "prepared to support" the government if Labour goes "further by introducing genuine reform".

Kruger adds that his party "would like to vote for benefit reform" and the country "really" needs it.

He says COVID prevented the last Tory government from getting the system into the state they would have liked.

Sky News Sam Coates and Politico's Anne McElvoy serve up their essential guide to the day in British politics. 

The prime minister has made significant concessions on the welfare bill after the threat of a mass rebellion from his own MPs.

The changes have left Chancellor Rachel Reeves with another black hole in the public finances, and some MPs are still planning on voting against the bill when it comes in front of the House of Commons tomorrow.

Also, as Sir Keir Starmer celebrates his first full year in power, has this latest U-turn left him in a vulnerable position with his party and the wider public? 

Baroness Jacqui Smith, now an education minister, was Labour's chief whip back in the noughties - so she knows a bit about managing the parliamentary party.

On the topic of the backbench rebellion against Sir Keir Starmer's welfare reforms, Smith says: "I don't think talking about, punishments - even as a former chief whip - is the constructive way forward here."

Espousing the carrot much more than the stick, Smith says it is usual for legislation to be debated and changes to be proposed at various points.

She highlights that work and pensions minister Stephen Timms is carrying out a review of the welfare system "alongside disabled people".

"That's the first time in ten years of PIP that a proper review like this has, has happened, and I hope therefore people will feel able tomorrow at second reading to vote for the reform, to vote for the principles of this change."

One of the key complaints about the reforms was that they had not been done in consultation with those who will be impacted.

Education minister Baroness Jacqui Smith is speaking to Sky News on behalf of the government this morning.

She is asked about the chants of "death to the IDF" led by punk bank Bob Vylan at Glastonbury.

Smith says the comments "overstepped the mark", and she was "surprised that the BBC carried on broadcasting them live".

She says it is now "for the police to consider" the complaints that have been made against the group.

The BBC now has "questions to answer" as to why the broadcast went on so long when the corporation said it was "trying to take extra care" with the streaming of the festival this year, she adds.

Smith confirmed that Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy had spoken to BBC chief Tim Davie about the issue.

Away from welfare changes, another one of the government's reforms is facing resistance.

But instead of MPs digging their heels in, it's civil servants.

Members of the Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) are downing tools over the proposed closure of offices, and the imposition of stricter working from home requirements.

PCS president Martin Cavanagh said: "From removing staff from an office before the lease expires to spuriously challenging lawful notices of industrial action, the employer seems intent to avoid proper consultation, disregard fair process and alienate its staff.

"Closing local offices while rigidly enforcing mandatory office attendance doesn鈥檛 make sense. The way out of this dispute is to negotiate, not frustrate."

The office being closed are Birmingham, Exeter, Newcastle, Sheffield, Truro and Warrington.

A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson said: "We have engaged with unions and staff about a number of proposals 鈥� including plans to expand four offices outside of London and close six offices over the next two years, as leases come to an end.

"The department will continue to have offices in every English region as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and all staff affected will be able to continue in their roles."

The Conservatives criticised the civil servants for striking over "being asked to show up to work and make better use of public buildings".

Like the Conservatives, the Labour Party has eyed reforming the Civil Service as a way to save money.

It has already announced a swathe of central London office will be closed.

The prime minister has criticised chants of "death to the IDF" during a Glastonbury performance on Saturday, while festival organiser Emily Eavis said they had "very much crossed a line".

Responding on Sunday to rap duo Bob Vylan's set the day before, Sir Keir Starmer said: "There is no excuse for this kind of appalling hate speech."

In the same statement, the prime minister repeated his previous argument that the Belfast rap group Kneecap should have been removed from the line-up after one member was charged with a terrorism offence.

"I said that Kneecap should not be given a platform and that goes for any other performers making threats or inciting violence.

"The BBC needs to explain how these scenes came to be broadcast."

On Sunday, Ms Eavis, whose father Michael co-founded the festival, posted her response to Bob Vylan's performance.

"Their chants very much crossed a line and we are urgently reminding everyone involved in the production of the Festival that there is no place at Glastonbury for antisemitism, hate speech or incitement to violence," she wrote.

It was less than a fortnight ago that embattled Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall, trying to convince MPs to back her reforms, said ministers were "firm in our convictions".

People on PIP and universal credit were too often being "written off", while the welfare bill was becoming unsustainable.

After an unprecedented rebellion by Labour MPs forced the prime minister into a significant retreat, today sees an interesting shift in those convictions. 

Her colleague Wes Streeting, who was drafted onto calls with angry backbenchers, tells Sky News he didn't want disabled people in his constituency surgeries on a Friday, telling him they were worse off when that was not the intention.

Watch Wes Streeting's interview with Sky News in full

This is exactly what many Labour MPs and disability groups were arguing was inevitable if current claimants were stripped of their benefits. 

Sir Keir Starmer, in a series of Sunday newspaper interviews in which he reflects on mistakes, says he now believes there was no point ploughing ahead with something which "doesn't necessarily achieve the desired outcome".

Having rushed forward these reforms to save 拢5bn in the spending review, it now seems ministers are admitting the package needed more thought.

The welfare bill is rising sharply, and many voters broadly support the idea of tackling it. But even if the draft legislation, which will affect new benefit claimants only, is voted through (and that's still an 'if' with dozens of Labour MPs still weighing it up), this debacle - for many MPs at least - goes to the heart of whose side the government is on. 

Exclusive by Alix Culbertson, political reporter

Dozens of MPs have called on Sir Keir Starmer to "urgently" establish a Ukraine-style visa to allow Gazans with family in the UK to come to Britain.

In a letter seen exclusively by Sky News, the 67 MPs and Lords from across the political spectrum, have asked the prime minister and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper to create a "Gaza Family Scheme" to "reunite [Palestinians] with their loved ones in the UK until it is safe to return".

"Just as the UK opened its doors to those fleeing persecution in Ukraine and Hong Kong, we believe that the same generosity should be extended to Palestinian families," the letter says.

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the UK opened up the Ukraine Family Scheme allowing Ukrainian nationals to join family members in the UK and live, work and study in the UK for up to three years. Applications closed in February 2024.

Two years before, the UK opened the British National (Overseas) visa to allow Hong Kongers fleeing after a strict national security law was imposed by China to live in the UK for five years then apply for British citizenship.

The letter, sent to the PM on Sunday evening, has been signed by 35 Labour MPs and House of Lords members, including Marsha de Cordova, Clive Lewis, Stella Creasy, Richard Burgon, Kim Johnson, Afzal Khan, Rachael Maskell, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Andy Slaughter and Alex Sobel.