Three amigos launch had spark but Independent Group needs a big hitter
The new independent group of MPs could grow in the coming days, but they need a big name to be taken seriously, says Jon Craig.
Wednesday 20 February 2019 20:54, UK
As political launches go, the performance of the Tory "three amigos" - as Heidi Allen called them - had an electricity聽that Labour's "magnificent seven" or "insignificant seven" - depending on your point of view - had somewhat lacked.
The choreography of the Conservative rebels' launch was more dramatic and almost certainly will have more impact, too.
The Labour defectors have been plotting and threatening to walk out for weeks if not months. Their walk-out was predictable.
The Tory trio showed brilliant timing and had the element or shock and surprise.
They announced their walk-out just an hour before Prime Minister's Questions, meaning there was a strange atmosphere in PMQs, with neither Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn wanting to taunt the other on their party splits.
It is worth noting that of the defectors from both parties so far, seven out the 11 are women and the three Tories are all women. "Two-thirds of us are women," said Anna Soubry at the launch, before adding: "That says a lot."
What does that say about the culture in British politics, firstly, given the accusations of bullying of some of the Labour MPs by - mostly - male allies of Jeremy Corbyn and hard-left activists and, secondly, that it is intransigent and curmudgeonly middle-aged men who are the most hardline Tory Brexiteers?
Both groups of MPs are united by their opposition to Brexit and support for a second referendum. The evidence so far, however, is that there isn't a majority for a new poll in the Commons.
There is one difference between the two groups, however. For the three Tories, it's all about Brexit. For the eight Labour MPs, while Brexit is an issue the deep sore that has provoked and possibly accelerated their resignation is antisemitism.
The identity of the defectors, on both sides, has come as little surprise. After weeks of speculation, when the Labour rebels made their move at the start of the week the names were fairly predictable.
Luciana Berger, for instance, has been bullied horrifically by antisemitic abusers and - according to her friends among Labour MPs - hounded out of the party.
Many of the Labour MPs who have jumped - most notably Chuka Umunna and Joan Ryan - were also facing de-selection by hard-left activists anyway.
Of the Conservative defectors, two - Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen - were selected as Tory candidates in an open primary and have long faced accusations from some of their colleagues that they are "not proper Conservatives".
A third Tory MP selected in an open primary, Phillip Lee, would have been on most people's list of potential defectors.
And in a Sky News interview and also a letter to the prime minister attacking her refusal to listen to Remainers on Brexit, he signalled that he might yet walk.
For the Tories, Anna Soubry is the biggest loss. A former criminal barrister and TV presenter, she's one of the best communicators in the Commons and - as she displayed when she was hounded by far-right activists after a Sky News interview last month - a gutsy fighter.
She is likely to be the most prominent Conservative in the new group and took charge at the news conference despite the sparky and emotional contributions from Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen.
What the group of 11 independent MPs badly lacks, however, is a big hitter.
When I interviewed Shirley Williams, one of the Gang of Four who launched the SDP in 1981, she insisted the current breakaway was very different from back then.
Her reason was the SDP was led by heavyweight figures who had held high government office. Of the Gang of Four, Roy Jenkins had been home secretary and chancellor and president of the European Commission, David Owen foreign secretary.
Shirley Williams was then best known as a combative education secretary in Jim Callaghan's government. The fourth gang member, Bill Rodgers, was the least well-known, but had been transport secretary in Callaghan's cabinet.
Of the 11 defectors in 2019, only two, Anna Soubry and Joan Ryan, have been government ministers. Anna Soubry attended Cabinet, but was never a full member. Joan Ryan was a relatively junior minister in the Home Office under Tony Blair. In fact she was always - and still is - one of the most committed Blairites.
We are told some Labour peers are considering joining the group.
Will they include Blair lieutenants - cronies, according to critics - like Peter Mandelson and Charlie Falconer? Lord Mandelson bitterly divides opinion, but he's an undisputed big hitter.
What about David Miliband, another leading Blairite?
Joan Ryan's closest pal in Parliament, Siobhain McDonagh, has suggested she might jump too.
Her sister Margaret, now in the Lords, was Labour's general secretary and is part of the Blair-Mandelson clan. She's one to watch, too, possibly.
We shouldn't forget Gordon Brown's allies, either. Tom Watson has been fiercely critical of Corbyn in his handling of this crisis.
Ian Austin, a former Brown spin doctor, has hinted he may yet jump and two more Brown spinners, John Woodcock and ex-MP Michael Dugher, have quit the party.
Will more Tories cross the floor of the Commons? Potentially, yes. Phillip Lee must be on resignation watch. Nick Boles is facing de-selection despite being a Leaver. Yes, really.
The group of 11 sitting together in the benches usually occupied by the Democratic Unionists made a dramatic image.
If the group were to grow to more than 35 it would have more MPs than the Scottish National Party and its leader - whoever that might be - would get a two-question crack at Theresa May at PMQs, deposing the SNP's Ian Blackford.
For now, though, they're only 11. But as the Sky Data poll has shown already they're more popular than the Liberal Democrats.
Percentage share of the vote can be meaningless, however. The SDP polled 25%, just behind Labour's 28%, in the 1983 general election, yet won only six seats. In 1987 it was 23% and just five seats.
Another lesson from the SDP is that the one defector from Labour back then who resigned and fought a by-election, Bruce Douglas-Mann in Mitcham and Morden (now Siobhain McDonagh's seat), lost.
No wonder the 11 breakaway MPs don't want to do that. Critics will claim that they talk about democracy and a second Brexit referendum but won't submit themselves to their constituents for re-election.
The next by-election will be in Newport West, following the death of 84-year-old Labour MP Paul Flynn, to whom affectionate tributes were paid by MPs of all parties at PMQs.
Will the independent group field a candidate there? Almost certainly not.
As well as big hitters, what the group needs now is time to build and gather momentum.
But at least the Tory launch had electricity, which is a start.