Trump pulling out of Iran nuclear deal would be a dangerous moment
The US President's decision will be hugely significant - but it doesn't necessarily have to deal a fatal blow to the agreement.
Monday 7 May 2018 20:39, UK
The calculation here in Washington is that Donald Trump will not re-certify the Iran deal tomorrow.
In other words, the US will effectively pull out.
It will be an inherently dangerous moment.
It is highly unlikely Iran will agree to renegotiate the deal as a whole and there is a chance that the whole thing will collapse and a military conflict will once again loom.
:: The Iran nuclear deal explained
The Israelis and the Americans have made it very clear they will take the action necessary to stop Iran getting the bomb.
But it ain't necessarily so.
There is a glimpse of an alternative arrangement on the horizon.
There is a scenario in which Mr Trump fulfils his promise to pull out of the deal, but the other signatories, including Iran, decide to stay in.
The US could then agree to hold off re-imposing sanctions while the Europeans, led by President Emmanuel Macron of France, try to work with Iran on what the UK Foreign Secretary Mr Johnson described to me as the "bad stuff".
He is talking about the Iranian ballistic missile programme, its support for terrorism in the Middle East and the sunset clauses in the deal, that effectively expire by 2025.
If the core of the deal is maintained and Iran somehow agrees to conditions on the broader issues, there remains a chance - just a chance - that diplomacy can win the day.
It is just one scenario but it is a possibility.
Certainly Iranian President Rouhani's suggestion that his country might stay in the deal even if the US leaves suggests that such an outcome is at least plausible.
Certainly military action is hugely riAG百家乐在线官网.
We have witnessed what can happen to a country where multiple international players have a stake.
The Syria story is one of utter catastrophe and appalling loss of life. Another war in the Middle East does not bear thinking about.
Mr Trump will announce his decision at 2pm US time on Tuesday. It will be hugely significant but doesn't necessarily have to deal a fatal blow to the agreement.