Vodafone hangs up on M&A activity and signals focus on product sales growth
Sky's Ian King says the company's investment shift asks shareholders to make a leap of faith after a tough COVID crisis.
Tuesday 18 May 2021 14:42, UK
Ask to name corporate victims of COVID-19, most people would probably choose pub and hotel operators, airlines, travel and leisure companies and retailers with a big bricks and mortar presence.
They wouldn't necessarily think of Vodafone.
Yet the telecoms and broadband giant can nonetheless be added to the roll-call.
Shares of Vodafone, which have lost a quarter of their value during the last three years, were down by 7% at one point on Tuesday after it reported adjusted earnings of €14.4bn for the year to the end of March - down 1.2% on the previous 12 months.
That was towards the bottom of the range to which it had been guiding investors and came as sales fell by 2.6%, to €43.8bn, which the company said reflected lower revenue from roaming, visitors and handset sales, adverse foreign exchange movements and the disposal of Vodafone New Zealand.
As ever, with Vodafone, the annual results can be presented in a number of different ways. The company - which, reflecting where the bulk of its earnings come from, reports in euros - announced a pre-tax profit for the year of €536m, compared with a loss of €455m the previous year, when it wrote off the value of its Indian joint venture Vodafone Idea.
But the numbers ought not to have come as a complete surprise since, at its half year results last November, Vodafone warned of a hit to revenues as a result of the pandemic. The company was also having to invest heavily during the course of the year to maintain capacity on its networks - the load on which, at the height of the pandemic, rose by up to 70%.
Nick Read, who became chief executive in October 2018, succeeding the long-serving Vittorio Colao, is not getting too hung up - forgive the pun - on one year's results, though.
He was keener on Tuesday to look to the future and set out details for the first time on Vodafone's ambitions for the medium term.
Vodafone has gone through an extraordinary series of changes of late and, during the last three years, has done no fewer than 19 transactions. The biggest of these was undoubtedly its blockbuster acquisition of Virgin Media owner Liberty Global's European cable assets, which made Vodafone Germany's largest cable operator, but it has also been offloading peripheral businesses to focus on Europe and Africa. More recently, of course, it has floated its infrastructure arm, Vantage Towers, on the Frankfurt stock market.
That shake-up now seems complete and Vodafone may not, in future, be the gift that keeps on giving to M&A bankers that it was in the past. The emphasis is now on organic growth.
According to Mr Read, the acceleration towards a digital society during the last year provides an opportunity for growth, with profits and cash flow benefiting accordingly.
That will help the company bring down net debt which, as today's results showed, remained stubbornly high at €40.5bn at the end of March - down €1.5bn on 12 months earlier.
Underpinning those growth opportunities are a number of trends Vodafone expects to continue in coming years - home working, the so-called 'Internet of Things' (IoT), the rapid growth of cloud computing in services such as music, video and gaming, as well as mobile digital payments.
As Mr Read put it: "Our customers value high quality connectivity more than ever but, at the same time, also see Vodafone as a credible trusted secure partner to provider a fuller package of digital services beyond core connectivity."
This means continuing to invest heavily. Vodafone's capital expenditure during the latest year was €7.9bn, up 6%, which is expected to rise to €8bn during the current year. Some of that investment is likely to be supported by the EU's €750bn pandemic Recovery Fund.
Mr Read highlighted that more than a fifth of EU recovery funding is being allocated to areas of investment in the digital society and said that, of the €300bn worth of grants being made under the EU's recovery and resilience facility, more than 70% has been allocated to member states in which Vodafone has a presence.
He added: "This represents a significant opportunity for Vodafone."
The emphasis on the EU is no coincidence. What may surprise some people, given Vodafone's origins in Newbury, Berkshire and its famous sponsorship for many years of the England cricket team, is the relative lack of importance of the UK to the company these days.
Following the Liberty transaction, Germany is now by far its biggest market, accounting for 39% of earnings during the last year. The UK, in fact, is now only the third-biggest contributor to profits, accounting for 10% of earnings, below Italy with 11%. Spain accounts for 7% of earnings and the rest of Europe 12%, with South Africa another 13%.
What Vodafone saves on investment bankers in coming years, though, it may be spending instead on lobbying and public affairs.
Mr Read, who likes to talk a lot about Vodafone's social contract, said today that influencing policy and regulation, particularly in Europe, was a key strategic priority. He said this had already led to positive outcomes in terms of the prices it had paid for 5G spectrum in markets such as the UK, the Netherlands, Greece and Hungary, in some state subsidies from the UK government and in the form of improved planning regulations in Germany.
He went on: "This progress has been part of a group co-ordinated initiative to better communicate the central role we play in the digital society. Through showcasing the importance of connectivity and digital services to Europe's overall industrial competitiveness, we are improving Vodafone's perception, reputation and ultimately relevance to policymakers…and consumers."
While policymakers may be buying into this vision, though, it remains questionable whether investors are.
Mr Read, who has been candid about the requirement for Vodafone to raise its return on capital expenditure, has not shied away from the need to invest more in coming years in leading gigabit networks - both fixed and 5G - and in coming up with stronger product offerings, especially for business customers. Ultimately, he argues, this will deliver superior returns and sold cash flows.
Vodafone is not alone among telecoms companies in bracing investors for a big upsurge in spending with the prospect of better returns in future.
BT did much the same earlier this month.
Cynical investors, though, may regard it as a promise of so much jam tomorrow.