What impact could a White Paper have on Brexit?
A series of amendments by rebels to the Article 50 Bill could be the consequence of a government u-turn, says Sky's Faisal Islam.
Wednesday 25 January 2017 23:06, UK
In the scheme of things it is not the most spectacular u-turn in the world.
The smirks from the Conservative front bench revealed their perception that this was a fantastic wheeze to shoot Jeremy Corbyn's PMQ's fox.
The White Paper might not be much more than the PM's Lancaster House speech, printed out.
But Theresa May's concession of a White Paper on Brexit is not what Downing Street indicated last week.
David Davis hedged his bets a little on Tuesday night, telling me "We're not", when I asked why he was scared of a White Paper.
Mr Davis himself advocated a paper as a tool of negotiations in an article penned days before he was appointed Brexit Secretary.
The promise had been held in reserve as a cost-free way to buy off any rebellion.
It was surrendered rather rapidly, within hours, after a series of Tory rebels demanded it.
New names such as Stephen Hammond also joined the calls. Gina Miller, after her Supreme Court victory, also called for a White Paper.
Will it be substantive?
Tory eurosceptic Jacob Rees Mogg told me the PM should print out her speech. Timing of the White Paper matters.
Privately, the Government is only promising the White Paper "before the end of March".
The Commons is likely to debate on two days next week for the Article 50 Bill's second reading.
The Committee stage will then get three days in the week beginning 6 February, the last week before recess. Late night sittings are being organised.
The SNP has publicly called for the White Paper to be published before that final week of debate.
The bigger point is whether the rebels have the taste for more concessions. The answer to that is clearly yes. Labour is key here, but the party's Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer has developed good relations with his SNP counterparts.
The pattern of behaviour here since Autumn is a PM who has shied away from forcing her own MPs to vote against her.
They will have been emboldened by the easy offer of the White Paper. Other amendments will include a demand for the publication of impact studies, and sectoral studies, and perhaps most notably a so-called "reset amendment".
The implicit acceptance (if not targeting) of WTO terms and tariffs as a possible consequence of the PM's plan, has focused minds on what happens if a bilateral deal is not struck and Parliament rejects what the Government ends up with.
Is there a return path? Should there be? Is Article 50 revocable? Could the PM be sent back to renegotiate?
This is the substance of what might be in the mix in the Parliamentary process triggered by the Supreme Court. This is why a minor u-turn on a White Paper - might have an impact.