Professor Michael Clarke: My assessment is that Russia will start to be pushed out of its conquered territory during the first half of next year because of shortages in all the key things it needs (except artillery tubes and shells) UNLESS it mobilises in some significant way.
Even in artillery systems, it can only keep going, we estimate, for about 20-24 months.
But Putin is so committed to this war that he will find ways of mobilising so that Russia will probably keep feeding men and equipment into the war even as they get chewed up by Western technology and a Ukrainian defence force of 700,000 to one million.
The Russian peacetime army is 280,000 and very badly organised and deeply corrupt. So Putin will have to gear up the country for a full "war".
That will be crazy, but I think that's what he will do 鈥� one crazy decision on top of another 鈥� that's the way dictators work in their protracted downfall.
Ellis: