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What is likeliest outcome in Ukraine and what would tip NATO into conflict? Your questions answered

We are six months into the Ukraine war, there appears little prospect of a peace deal soon and much of the fighting is at a virtual standstill. Where will the conflict go from here - Sky's Alistair Bunkall, in Ukraine, and analyst Professor Michael Clarke answer your questions.

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That's it - but if you missed our live Q&A, you can scroll through all the answers below

What is likeliest outcome in Ukraine? Could Putin be ousted? What would tip NATO into conflict? These were just some of the questions answered by Professor Michael Clarke, the former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and our correspondent in Ukraine, Alistair Bunkall.

Thanks to the more than 2,000 people who submitted questions - and to Michael and Alistair for their time on a very busy day for Ukraine watchers.

Ellis:

Are signs of disobedience in the Russian military growing?

Professor Michael Clarke:  Yes - because legally Russian troops do not have to serve unless in a "war" and Putin won't declare it as a war, so they have a loophole and are using it. 

Then there is a fair amount of mutiny at the front lines. BUT, that will not stop the offensive in itself. 

Russia is now offering big amounts (3x 鈥� 4x the average monthly salary) for young men to take the military contract and serve for as little as six months, with virtually no training. 

Desperate stuff, but Russia will keep feeding young men into the war. Many of them will die with bulging bank accounts back home.

Amanda:

Do you think the Russians killed Dugina so that they can make a reason for murdering certain targets? As I'd be very suspicious that her father switched cars at the last minute. As we all know, Russia can be and is ruthless.

Alistair Bunkall: I think the Russian claim that Ukraine was behind the attack is doubtful. 

They came to that conclusion incredibly quickly and it would be a huge step forward in Ukraine's abilities to carry out an assassination of this kind in the heart of Moscow. 

Whatever the truth, it's certainly convenient to blame Ukraine.

Josh Simpson:

With an initial plan to smash through Ukraine in a matter of days clearly failing, what do we now see as Putin's end goal in the war?

Professor Michael Clarke:  It's not clear what Putin now regards as a war aim, given that the conquest of Ukraine cannot now be achieved 鈥� not this time, at any rate. 

My guess is that he would regard it as a victory if Russian forces could occupy all of the south, including Odesa, and therefore make Ukraine a non-viable state for the future. 

He might then pause this generational war on Ukraine for a few years on the assumption that a weakened Ukraine would fall into his hands at some later date. 

That would be a long-term success for him that keeps up his claim to be a worthy successor to Peter the Great, Catherine the Great and Stalin.

Mariya:

How will the UN hold Russia accountable for the war crimes being committed daily in Ukraine? And when?

Alistair Bunkall: The work to collect evidence of war crimes is ongoing and it's a vast operation. 

There are currently more than 26,000 open cases and more will emerge as the conflict goes on. 

Ukraine isn't an official signatory to the International Criminal Court, and so a special tribunal has been suggested. 

Prosecuting for war crimes can take many years, though.

Kanaal:

What is the likelihood of Putin escalating the conflict with a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine and how would NATO respond?

Professor Michael Clarke: Not very likely. A tactical nuke can only be used to any effect against concentrations of troops - which Ukraine forces do not provide. 

And the downside in terms of world opinion would be huge if Russia used even a small nuke. 

Accepted opinion is that nuclear use could only ever be contemplated if the existence of the homeland is seriously threatened 鈥� and the Ukraine war will never threaten the Russian homeland. 

Losing the war would be a big threat to Putin and his circle, but Russia faces NO threats to the homeland 鈥� despite what Putin et al always claim. 

If they really worry about being "invaded" sometime in the future, they should be looking at Beijing and the Ussuri River border. 

Mark Boyd:

Why don't we disconnect Russia from the www (internet), thus reducing hacking and misinformation and also hitting the Russian people, making them question why?

Alistair Bunkall: I'll be honest, I don't know how easy that would be. 

The West is also trying to be careful that its response to the Ukraine invasion targets Russians with links to the Kremlin, not ordinary Russians, many of whom might be opposed to the war.

Phill:

If the nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia does have a leak or spread radioactive materials, this would have a disastrous effect on the environment and the health of innocent people in many surrounding countries and beyond. Will NATO then stand up to this atrocity?

Alistair Bunkall: You're right, Phill, it would have a disastrous impact on the environment and humanity. 

Although Ukraine isn't a NATO member, depending on the effect to eastern Europe, such an attack on the power station could, in theory, trigger article five of collective defence.

Rob:

How long can Russia sustain the war considering how much weaponry, troops and money they have left?

Professor Michael Clarke: My assessment is that Russia will start to be pushed out of its conquered territory during the first half of next year because of shortages in all the key things it needs (except artillery tubes and shells) UNLESS it mobilises in some significant way. 

Even in artillery systems, it can only keep going, we estimate, for about 20-24 months. 

But Putin is so committed to this war that he will find ways of mobilising so that Russia will probably keep feeding men and equipment into the war even as they get chewed up by Western technology and a Ukrainian defence force of 700,000 to one million. 

The Russian peacetime army is 280,000 and very badly organised and deeply corrupt. So Putin will have to gear up the country for a full "war". 

That will be crazy, but I think that's what he will do 鈥� one crazy decision on top of another 鈥� that's the way dictators work in their protracted downfall.

Harry N:

What will likely happen to grain exports should the conflict further escalate? Would we expect to see an abrupt end to the 'grain corridor' ?

Alistair Bunkall: The deal to allow grain shipments to resume is the one diplomatic breakthrough in this war so far. 

Were Odesa to be dragged further into the war, then shipping companies might struggle to get the insurance to send vessels in.

As it stands, I don't see anything disrupting grain shipments in the immediate future. I've watched many ships enter and leave Odesa port 鈥� ideally more would make it in, but it's encouraging nevertheless, and how many times have we been able to say that over the last six months?