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Analysis

Coronavirus: Number of COVID-19 deaths may have fallen for eighth week running - but the crisis isn't over yet

The death toll from COVID-19 is still rising and more people are dying than would usually be expected for this time of year.

Signs advise beachgoers arriving at the seafront to 'Maintain Social Distance due to COVID-19", on the promenade in Southend-on-Sea, south east England on May 25, 2020, after lockdown restrictions, originally put in place due the COVID-19 pandemic, were lifted earlier this month. - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Sunday backed top aide Dominic Cummings despite mounting pressure from within his own party to sack him over claims he broke coronavirus lockdown regulations. (Photo by Ben STAN
Image: Coronavirus-related deaths are down week-on-week - but are yet to stop completely
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The number of people who have died with COVID-19 on their death certificate has fallen for the eighth week in a row.

But the total number of people in England and Wales who died of all causes in the week to 12 June (the 24th week of the year) is still higher than the five-year rolling average.

In other words, the death toll from COVID-19 is still rising and more people are dying than would usually be expected for this time of year.

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The number of people who died of all causes in the week to 12 June was 9,976 - that's 733 lower than the week before, but still 5.9% (559 deaths) higher than the five-year rolling average.

In better news, this is the first week since the coronavirus pandemic began where the number of COVID-19 deaths did not increase in any age group.

And there have also now been four consecutive weeks without higher than average excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19.

This was the case for seven weeks in March and April, raising concerns that people were avoiding seeking treatment for other medical emergencies.

More on Covid-19

Deaths in care homes, the so-called epicentre of the COVID-19, fell a little on the week before - but they are still nearly 200 higher than the five-year rolling average.

This suggests that the crisis is beginning to be brought under control in these settings.

Coronavirus: How many excess deaths has the COVID-19 pandemic caused in your area?
Coronavirus: How many excess deaths has the COVID-19 pandemic caused in your area?

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Notably, the number of excess deaths happening in people's homes remains the highest of any setting, while deaths in hospitals are below the five-year average - this suggests that people may still be reluctant to go to hospital.

It means that the total number of excess deaths across the UK this year is now at roughly 65,000.

We're sadly not at the end of this crisis yet.

The COVID-19 death toll is now rising much slower than it was, but it is still rising.