Five reasons why we may not see anything more than rhetoric from Russia after US attacks Iran
Iran has been a vital ally to Moscow in recent years, selling it weapons for its war in Ukraine, and the two nations signed a strategic partnership deal in January. But the response to the US strikes so far from Moscow feels more show than substance.
Sunday 22 June 2025 18:41, UK
On the surface, at least, Moscow is fuming.
Russia's foreign ministry said it "strongly condemns" the US airstrikes on Iran, which it labelled a "dangerous escalation".
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's powerful security council, accused Donald Trump of starting "a new war", and others have called for Moscow to step in.
"It's time for us to help Tehran," said Konstantin Malofeyev, a sanctioned Russian businessman who is close to Vladimir Putin. But this was to be expected.
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Iran has been a vital ally in recent years, selling weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, and the two nations signed a strategic partnership deal in January.
So a robust verbal riposte was predictable.
But the response so far feels more show than substance and if things don't escalate further, I doubt we'll see anything more than rhetoric from Russia.
There are several reasons why.
Firstly, the strategic partnership deal doesn't contain a mutual defence clause. The pact does seek to deepen their defence cooperation, but neither country is obliged to provide military support to the other in the event of an attack.
Secondly, if Moscow did want to join the conflict or even supply weapons to Tehran, it would be hard pushed to. Resources are focused on the war in Ukraine.
Thirdly, Russia doesn't want to damage its warming relations with the US. Any kind of aid to Iran would likely jeopardise the tentative rapprochement.
Fourthly, the Israel-Iran conflict is a helpful distraction from the Kremlin's war against Ukraine. With all eyes on the Middle East, any pressure there was from Washington on Moscow to reach a peace deal seems to have evaporated.
Lastly, it's not Vladimir Putin who's spoken out, but the usual attack dogs.
Dmitry Medvedev, for example, is a senior figure but his fiery rhetoric is generally considered to be part of a Kremlin comms strategy rather than actual policy expression.
Having said all that, though, Russia won't want the situation to escalate any further.
Its regional influence took a battering when the Assad regime in Syria was toppled in December, and that influence would practically disappear if another Moscow-friendly regime in Iran were to fall.
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So for now, the Kremlin is frantically trying to find a diplomatic solution.
Last week, Vladimir Putin held conversations with the leaders of Israel, Iran, America, China and the UAE, and those efforts continue on Monday when he'll meet Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Moscow.
If the reports are true - that the US forewarned Tehran of the bombings and signalled they'd be a one-off - there's a good chance Moscow had prior knowledge too.
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Either way, Vladimir Putin's aim here is to play peacemaker, and to turn the situation to his advantage.
If he can persuade Mr Araghchi to limit Iran's response to a symbolic one, and to then return to the negotiating table with America, he will have Donald Trump in his debt.
The obvious place he'd want that repaid is Ukraine, in the form of withdrawing US support.