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Politics latest: Our politics team answer your questions - as PM bids to see off growing welfare rebellion

Keir Starmer has returned to the Commons from international summits to a burgeoning backbench rebellion threatening to kill his welfare reforms. The PM has hinted concessions could be on the way, but will they be enough ahead of a crunch vote next week?

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Thanks to everyone who's submitted a comment this afternoon - we've assembled some of our politics reporters to answer your questions about the government's welfare reforms and the rebellion facing the PM.

Scroll down to follow along.

Why doesn't the government cut the aid budget instead?

Sam:

Why is the government targeting the disabled community to make cuts? Why not cut the spending in other areas, like foreign aid for instance?

Thanks for your question, Sam.

All decisions on cuts and spendings are political choices, of course, but don't forget there's already been one significant slashing of the foreign aid budget and that didn't go down well with Labour backbenchers either.

Keir Starmer announced earlier this year the overseas aid budget would drop from 0.5% of GDP to 0.3% to fund a defence spending boost.

He had criticised the Tories when they dropped it from 0.7% to 0.5% under Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, and his development minister Anneliese Dodds (once his shadow chancellor) resigned when the prime minister announced his own cut - to be in place by 2027.

She wasn't the only Labour MP left disappointed by his decision, which caught plenty of them by surprise.

How will welfare reforms help people into work?

Tammi:

They say cutting benefits will push people into work, but how? Where's the support? Where are the jobs that disabled or mentally ill people can actually do safely?

Hello there, Tammi. You speak for a lot of people in our comments box today when it comes to the government's welfare plans.

Our political reporter Ben Bloch writes:

There are two planks to the government's argument that its welfare legislation will get more people into work.

Firstly, it believes those people deemed capable of work will be "incentivised" to get a job if their benefits are cut.

Secondly, ministers argue there is a vast package of measures to help people into work.

Those include:

  • A "right to try" initiative, giving people the opportunity to try working, without the risk of losing their benefits during a certain period;
  • By 2029/30, over 拢1bn will be invested in "personalised employment and health support for individuals on out of work benefits";
  • Everyone affected by the changes to the health element of universal credit will be offered support from "a dedicated Pathways to Work adviser";
  • Everyone affected by the overall reforms will be contacted and offered a "conversation" about their needs, goals, and aspirations - with "health and skills support".

Simultaneously, the government is already overhauling Jobcentres to more effectively help people who are unemployed into work, especially young people.

But disabled groups say the loss of the personal independence payment (PIP) and health top-up on universal credit will put enormous pressure and stress on people with debilitating health conditions, and will push many thousands who cannot work into poverty.

Has government consulted with disabled people over cuts?

Alfred:

Have Labour spoken to anyone who will be directly affected by these cuts? Or are they writing policy about vulnerable people, without us even in the room?

Thanks for your question, Alfred - you weren't the only one to ask one along these lines.

Our political reporter Faye Brown says: 

One of the key criticisms of the Labour rebels is the provisions in the welfare bill have not been formally consulted on with disabled people or co-produced with them. 

Disability groups want the government to scrap its proposals and work with them to create a National Disability Strategy to address barriers to employment.

That's not to say an impact assessment hasn't been done.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) estimates another 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, could be pushed into relative poverty in the financial year ending 2030 because of the proposed cuts.

Ministers say this will be offset by measures to get people into work, but it's not clear what those are and how it will help those set to lose benefits, many of whom are already in work.

The government has launched a review into boosting the employment of disabled people and people with long-term health conditions, to be led by Sir Charlie Mayfield. They plan to engage with representative groups as part of this.  

However, the recommendations won't come until the autumn, and rebels want the government to hold off on the cuts until then. 

Who would be the front-runners to replace Starmer as PM?

Ethan:

If Sir Keir was to be forced to resign as PM who would be the front runners to replace him?

Thanks for your question, Ethan.

You weren't the only one to ask this, given our report yesterday that ministers have gone as far as to warn rebels they could force a leadership contest against the PM if they defeat the government next week.

Our political reporter Ben Bloch writes:

This is a very unlikely scenario. Many rebels have explicitly said they do not want to bring down the government, and by extension, Starmer's premiership - they want to force a U-turn on these benefit cuts.

If the government does lose the second reading vote on the welfare bill on Tuesday, it will certainly severely weaken the government, but it is incredibly unlikely to lead to its imminent collapse (famous last words!).

But let's indulge a bit. Bearing in mind it is Labour members who choose their leader, not the country at large, here are the most popular candidates, according to a survey earlier this month by LabourList.

Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, is by far the most popular figure among Labour members. He has made headlines speaking up for greater investment outside London and the South East. 

The problem? He is not an MP nor a peer, and so to replace Starmer as PM, he would have to be appointed to the House of Lords, or win a parliamentary seat in a by-election.

Angela Rayner is comfortably the second most popular choice for next Labour leader - and holds a distinct advantage over Burnham as she actually has a seat in the Commons, and is already deputy PM. 

But among the public, she is one of the most unpopular cabinet ministers. It is also unclear whether she would actually stand, having told Sky News she would "never" do so.

Wes Streeting has made no secret of his leadership ambitions, and his plain-speaking style has led to him being touted as a future PM. 

But the health secretary is only the third most popular choice for future leader - and only just. He is known to be from the right of the party, and it is not clear if he would be able to attract broad appeal among members.

How many children will be pushed into poverty by welfare cuts?

Linda:

How many more children will grow up in trauma, hunger, and poverty because their parents were stripped of help? Is this the "growth" Labour promises? A cycle of suffering?

Thanks for your question, Linda.

Our political reporter Tim Baker has looked into this one:

As part of the process of introducing the legislation, the government had an impact assessment done.

It found 370,000 new claimants, and 430,000 potential new claimants, may not qualify or lose out on personal independence payments (PIP).

Some 150,000 people are also expected to lose out on carers' allowance.

A separate assessment, which was released alongside the spring statement, estimates that 250,000 extra people - including 50,000 children - could be in relative poverty by the end of the decade.

The government argues these figures don't account for the cash its putting into employment support as part of the welfare reforms.

Additionally, the Child Poverty Action Group says its research has identified 870,000 children in families that receive PIP - 290,000 of whom are already below the poverty line.

Public reject cuts to disability benefits and fear they'll increase pressure on NHS - poll

By Will Charley, political reporter

New polling suggests the public are overwhelmingly opposed to the government's planned cuts to disability benefits. 

Findings by More In Common found just 27% of people support the proposed changes to the benefit system.

Some 60% of people said the government should look at other ways to save money, and 52% said the cuts will increase pressure on the NHS.

Ministers confirmed today they are pushing ahead with plans for a crunch vote in the Commons on the Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill next Tuesday.

That's despite more than 120 Labour MPs publicly signing an amendment, which would kill the bill.

The polling, carried out with charity Disability Rights UK, also found 51% of people believe the cuts will worsen the health of disabled people. 

The results also found:

  • 67% of PIP recipients say they specifically use some or all of their payment to support their ability to be physically active
  • 51% of PIP recipients say losing their payments would make them less active
  • More than one third (34%) of benefits recipients fear they would participate less in the community

Mikey Erhardt, the charity's policy lead, told Sky News: "Our research with More In Common should provide MPs with all the evidence they need to vote against the changes proposed in this bill.

"The risk to public health and the NHS that will arise from these cuts is huge and hasn't yet even been recognised by the government."

Watch: Why is the government cutting benefits?

Cuts 'would be devastating'

Another national charity opposing the cuts is Sense.

James Watson-O'Neil, the charity's chief executive, said the cuts "would be devastating for disabled people" and risk pushing "hundreds of thousands into poverty and isolation".

He added: "Disabled people are telling us they鈥檙e worried they won鈥檛 be able to heat their homes, put food on the table, or afford the therapies they rely on. These are not luxuries鈥攖hey are basic needs."

Sense is calling on people to write to their local MP urging them to vote against the bill. All 650 MPs have now heard from at least one constituent, on behalf of the charity, it added.

Britain has 'too many people who are taking', Badenoch says

Turning to welfare, Kemi Badenoch says government spending on debt interest is over 拢100bn a year, and welfare spending is "out of control".

"Our country is living beyond its means," she says. "We are spending more than we are earning; and it means the cost of living crisis for working people is getting worse and worse."

She calls for a "totally different approach" that "ensures things are easier for the makers 鈥� the people who work hard, create wealth and jobs, and deliver frontline public services".

"Too many people" are "taking", she says, pointing to people who "sit at home with the curtains drawn while others go out to work, or who skip the queue and arrive here illegally", while still having access to benefits, social housing, and the NHS.

Starmer 'in fight of his life'

Turning to the government's battle with its own backbenches to get its welfare cuts through parliament, Badenoch says the PM is "in the fight of his life" and Labour MPs are "too scared to make difficult decisions".

She calls for "real welfare reform" and a "fundamental rethink about which conditions should qualify for long-term financial support", adding she was "shocked" to hear most new disability claims are for behavioural and mental health conditions like anxiety.

Badenoch sets out economic vision and criticises Starmer's policies

Kemi Badenoch opens her speech by setting out her vision of how to run the economy.

She tells the British Chamber of Commerce: "My vision, the Conservative vision, is it is not government that creates growth - it is business."

One of the reasons the Tories lost the election last year is they "were no longer trusted", she says, adding: "It's quite clear that we got enough things wrong during our time in government that people wanted change."

'I know who's side I'm on'

The Tory leader turns to what has happened since the general election, saying inflation is higher, unemployment is up, and growth has halved.

She points to the national insurance rise that could lead to job losses, and the creation of "more quangos" that is increasing bureaucracy.

"This matters because it is about real people - it is people and businesses who are hurting when government is making wrong decisions," she says.

She says the Tories would scrap it and "responsibly" cut taxes.

Watch live: Badenoch gives speech at business conference

Following in the footsteps of Keir Starmer this morning, the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is addressing business leaders.

You can watch her speech at the British Chamber of Commerce in the stream above if you'd like.