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Keir Starmer has returned to Downing Street after two days at a NATO summit, and faces arguably the toughest fight of his premiership.

Here are the main things you need to know from today so far:

• The PM has vowed to keep talking to Labour MPs about their concerns with his welfare reforms, telling them he wants to get them "right";
• Starmer used the top of a Commons statement about the NATO summit to address the rebellion that threatens to defeat his government, with at least 126 backbenchers seeking to block his plans;
• Our political correspondent Amanda Akass said it was clear the PM was now considering concessions, but our deputy political editor Sam Coates said they would cost the chancellor billions.

• The crunch parliamentary vote on the welfare reforms is due to take place next Tuesday, with ministers insisting it will go ahead;
• Rebel MPs have told Sky News they remain angry with Number 10 about how their concerns have been handled, with many still prepared to vote against the government;
• "It's now become more than welfare," one said, while another said Starmer had treated the rebels with "contempt".

We'll bring you more updates and analysis on this developing story throughout the afternoon.

Our political correspondent Amanda Akass and our political reporter Faye Brown have been hearing from some Labour MPs prepared to vote against the government's welfare reforms.

One who has signed the "reasoned amendment" designed to kill the proposed bill says they have not been approached by No 10 or any ministers about their concerns.

They think it'll be hard for the PM's team to "really bring the numbers they need back on board", as "everyone has their own reasons" for opposing the changes.

'Many are sticking to their guns'

A reminder that at least 126 Labour MPs have signed the amendment, more than enough to defeat the government.

Another rebel says: "Many are sticking to their guns - it's now become more than welfare."

They say the PM's allies have been "too heavy" with attempts to win rebels over, putting too much pressure on backbenchers.

'This is only annoying people more'

And despite Keir Starmer's seemingly conciliatory statement in the Commons this morning, another rebels says they are yet to hear any "concrete" signs of concessions.

They don't expect their position to change before Tuesday's vote, and think the government should delay it until later in the year.

One MP accuses No 10 and Starmer of showing "utter contempt" towards the rebels, and says this "is only annoying people more".

It appears the Labour rebels threatening to bring down the government's welfare reforms may get something for their trouble, says our political correspondent Amanda Akass.

The prime minister's statement in the Commons "indicated to MPs he is listening" to their concerns.

He said "all colleagues want to get this right - and so do I".

"A real indication that he is looking at concessions to the rebels to avoid a very embarrassing defeat," Amanda says.

Stephen Flynn, for the SNP, also brings up the welfare reforms, which he characterises as taking money from disabled people.

He asks the PM: "How can he justify making a moral argument for security abroad while removing security from disabled people at home?"

Sir Keir Starmer says that the upped spending on defence did not come from the welfare budget. It's coming from overseas aid, you may recall.

He adds: "I believe in the moral duty to defend our country".

Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, told MPs he is "glad the prime minister has signalled retreat on his welfare plan".

He says he hopes Sir Keir Starmer "will now listen to everyone, not just his backbenchers" on disability benefits. 

Davey also pushes the PM to make use of frozen Russian assets, something he's regularly called for to help support Ukraine.

Responding, Starmer does not address Davey's comments on welfare.

On frozen Russian assets, he says this is "complicated" and there "isn't one view" among allies.

Kemi Badenoch is now on her feet, responding to the PM.

She accuses Sir Keir Starmer of evading PMQs yesterday. It would have been hard for him to dial in from the NATO summit, in fairness.

The Tory leader says Britain used to be a major player on the world stage but claims "we are on the sidelines", and criticises the PM for having a foreign policy "out of step with the US and out of the loop with Israel".

'We need a leader - instead we have three lawyers'

Badenoch says the PM "had no idea what was going on" ahead of the US strikes against Iran over the weekend.

"What we need is a leader, instead we have three lawyers," she says, referring to the PM, his attorney general, and the foreign secretary.

Badenoch backs the government's decision to purchase F-35a jets but says Labour "does not have a plan" to raise defence spending, describing their pledges as "smoke and mirrors".

She concludes: "This is a government that is paralysed by its own legal advice, paralysed by its rebellious backbenchers and paralysed by the fear of being found out for having no real vision for this country."

Sir Keir Starmer now turns to the conflict in the Middle East.

He says it has been UK policy for decades that "Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon", and US strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend were a "big step towards resolving that threat".

Starmer urges Iran and Israel to stick to their ceasefire, and for Iran to negotiate with the US. He also wants an end to the fighting in Gaza, and says the government is "using every diplomatic lever" to help with this.

'We will seize the opportunity'

Turning to this week's NATO summit, Starmer hails allies' agreement to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035, with the UK to hit 4.1% in 2027 and the ultimate target by 2035.

"We will seize the opportunity created by this moment to align our national security objectives and plans for economic growth in a way not seen since the 1940s," he adds.

The PM points to the government's commitment to buy 12 new F-35 planes that can carry nuclear weapons, before saying allies were also committed to working together on illegal migration and trade.

Sir Keir Starmer is on his feet in the House of Commons, and he begins by addressing the issue around welfare reforms.

He says: "I recognise there is a consensus across the House on the urgent need for reform on our welfare system because the British people deserve protection and dignity when they are unable to work.

"At the moment, they are failed every single day by the broken system created by the Conservatives."

Starmer doubles down on vote despite rebellion

The PM acknowledges "all colleagues want to get this right - and so do I".

He says: "We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness. That conversation will continue in the coming days."

Starmer adds this is so "we can continue making change together on Tuesday".

That's when the Commons vote on his plans is due to take place. As it stands, there are enough Labour rebels to defeat the government, and ministers have been talking to them about possible changes to the bill.

It's been a busy few weeks of diplomacy for Sir Keir Starmer, who returned from a NATO summit at The Hague overnight.

He's now delivering a statement on the summit and a previous meeting of the Group of Seven in Alberta, Canada.

We'll bring you any key updates - stay tuned.

The prime minister has returned from his latest appearance on the world stage amid the high seriousness of international debate around defence spending and the future of NATO 鈥� to a political ambush back at home.

Less than a year in to his premiership and a large and growing group of rebels are on course to hole his government below the waterline in what would be a crippling blow to his leadership.

More than 120 MPs have now signed an amendment which would kill off the government鈥檚 welfare bill on Tuesday 鈥� a signature piece of legislation which aims to reform the welfare system and save 拢5bn. 

It seems a charm/threat offensive which saw members of the cabinet ringing round the rebels in an effort to change their mind has had the opposite effect, with six more names on the list than yesterday.

Watch: The welfare rebellion explained

Government ministers insist the vote will still go ahead 鈥� but they're taking a more conciliatory approach. 

It looks like they're hoping to offer the rebels enough of a compromise to enable everyone to back down with concessions which could include easing the restrictions on eligibility criteria for personal independents payments, so fewer people lose out 鈥� or delaying the implementation process until later in the year.

Trade minister Douglas Alexander was doing his best to love-bomb the rebels on the broadcast round this morning鈥� claiming "everyone is just trying to do their job well" and insisting everyone in the Labour Party is united on the principle of welfare reform, and this is a little local disagreement about implementation.

Watch: Minister insists welfare needs reform

But while the rebels say they back the stated goal of the reforms - with most MPs across the house agreeing with the government's aim to support more sick and disabled people back into work - they do not agree with a cost-cutting approach which would deprive 800,000 sick and disabled people of the personal independence payments they receive to help cope with the additional costs of living with their health conditions.

Some MPs this morning are sounding mollified by the government鈥檚 change in approach. Josh Fenton-Glynn, for example, has posted that it seems their "reasonable concerns are being listened to".

Others, like serial rebel Richard Burgon, tell me "the view is widening among MPs that the only way forward is not inadequate concessions but the bill being pulled and government going back to the drawing board".

The problem for the prime minister - and the chancellor - is any backtracking will leave the government with a black hole in the budget.

And as the winter fuel U-turn has shown, once MPs get a taste for rebellion, they鈥檙e emboldened to come back for more.