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Analysis

Vodafone buys time as Middle East investor dials in 9.8% stake

Sky's Ian King says the investment by e&, formerly known as Etisalat, is not believed to be the beginning of a move on Vodafone but an endorsement of its chief executive's strategy.

Vodafone
Image: Vodafone shares reacted positively when the market gave its first reaction to the weekend deal
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Ever since he succeeded Vittorio Colao as chief executive of Vodafone in 2018, Nick Read has sounded increasingly frustrated at the stock market's refusal - as he sees it - to value the company's prospects appropriately.

Yet over the weekend came news that at least one big investor appears to have faith in his strategy.

Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Telecommunications Group announced it had bought a 9.8% stake in the mobile operator, paying an estimated $4.4bn (£3.6bn), saying it had done so "to gain significant exposure to a world leader in connectivity and digital services".

The company, which has just rebranded itself from the perfectly sensible Etisalat to the rather confusing e& (why do companies do things like this?), said Vodafone's strong reputation as a leading digital-first operator, its rigorous approach to corporate governance and well-regulated global footprint made it an attractive opportunity.

Hatem Dowidar, its chief executive, said: "Vodafone is one of the leading businesses at the heart of digital communications in Europe and Africa with a compelling business offering critical connectivity and digital services.

"Our investment represents a unique opportunity to acquire a significant stake in one of the leading and strongest global telecom brands, and a company that we know well.

"We are looking forward to building a mutually beneficial strategic partnership with Vodafone with the goal of driving value creation for both our businesses, exploring opportunities in the rapidly developing global telecoms market and supporting the adoption of next-generation technologies.

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"We see this investment as a good opportunity for e& and its shareholders as it will allow us to enhance and develop our international portfolio, in line with our strategic ambition."

Mr Dowidar, a former Vodafone executive, stressed that e& planned to be a constructive long-term shareholder and had no plans to make an offer for Vodafone.

Shares of Vodafone have risen by as much as 3.5% on Monday as the market got a first opportunity to respond to the news.

Mr Read, who is said to have met Mr Dowidar at the Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona in March, is likely to take the investment as an endorsement.

There has been plenty of activity during his three and a half years at the helm.

Vodafone has listed its infrastructure arm, Vantage Towers, on the Frankfurt stock exchange and offloaded a number of peripheral businesses, including its business in New Zealand, as it sought to focus on a smaller number of markets in which it has industry leading - or near-industry leading - positions.

He has also sought to convince investors of the need to invest more in leading gigabit networks - both fixed and 5G - to deliver stronger returns in future.

Abu Dhabi-based e&, formerly known as Etisalat, has 150 million customers across the Middle East, Asia and Africa. Pic: e&
Image: Abu Dhabi-based e&, formerly known as Etisalat, has 150 million customers across the Middle East, Asia and Africa. Pic: e&

For whatever reason, though, the market has remained sceptical. Shares of Vodafone, at the close on Friday evening, remained 28% lower than they were when Mr Read took the helm in October 2018.

Some of that reflects the fact that the company took an as COVID-19 struck Europe and the pandemic continued to have an overhang on the company's performance thereafter.

Mr Read's response was to stress the need for patience as Vodafone continued to invest heavily.

But he also started to take a more strident tone in his comments about regulators - arguing in November last year, for example, that a level of consolidation among mobile operators was required to allow mobile operators the stronger financial returns they require to carry on investing.

And he had a point. The cost of rolling out 5G in the UK, for example, has been rendered costlier by the government's ban on the Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei from the network - pushing mobile operators to a smaller, and therefore costlier, choice of suppliers.

Consolidation in the market was blocked in 2016 when the European Commission prevented O2 from merging with Hong Kong-owned 3 UK - although BT was subsequently allowed to buy EE and O2 itself ended up merging with the cable operator Virgin Media.

But Mr Read's comments were also taken as a sign that Vodafone was looking to bulk up in the UK.

That gained impetus when, in January this year, it emerged that an activist investor, Cevian Capital, had taken a stake in Vodafone. It is said to have been agitating for Vodafone to embark in more industry consolidation.

Sure enough, it emerged this month that he was looking to combine Vodafone UK with 3 UK, a deal that would bring together the third and fourth largest players in the market.

Italy, Spain and Portugal are also markets in which Vodafone is a leading player and in which it is being urged to do deals. The company recently rejected an €11bn offer for its business in Italy and has also suffered a setback in Spain, where its business had long been linked with a merger with either the Spanish arm of French-owned Orange or with local player MasMovil, which is owned by the US private equity giant KKR.

Unfortunately for Vodafone, the latter two announced in March that they were in merger talks, leaving it sidelined.

For now, the market is assuming e&'s interest is benign.

Akhil Dattani, analyst at JP Morgan European Equity Research, said: "Whilst a surprising turn of events, at face value this seems nothing more than an opportunistic move from a company with a net cash position."

Jim Wright, manager at Premier Miton Global Infrastructure Income Fund, said: "We believe they are also taking a stake in a company whose telecom infrastructure assets - masts, towers and high-speed data networks - are extremely valuable at a time of growing connectivity.

"As with the acquisition of an 18% stake in BT by the telecom investor Patric Drahi at the end of 2021, if the equity markets consistently undervalue these assets, we expect to see strategic buyers stepping in to take advantage."

It may well be that, in time, e& raises its stake in Vodafone or decides to push for a more radical reshaping of the group.

For now, though, its arrival as a shareholder is likely to have the effect of buying Mr Read time.